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	<title>Talking about strategy &#187; survival</title>
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		<title>Aims &#8211; growth, survival &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/aims-growth-survival/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/aims-growth-survival/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2009 09:31:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[downturn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[starbucks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[survival]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=544</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I made a strong case in a previous post that strategy research should have been asking how strong firms grow cash flows, not deliver profit ratios. I had two main push-backs &#8211; 1. is growth relevant in present conditions? &#8211; 2. survival is really all that matters.  The first is easily dealt with &#8211; stronger <a href='http://kimwarren.com/strategy/aims-growth-survival/'>[...]</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I made a strong case in a <a href="http://www.kimwarren.com/2007/12/profitability-or-growth/" target="_blank">previous post </a>that strategy research should have been asking how strong firms grow cash flows, not deliver profit ratios. I had two main push-backs &#8211; 1. is growth relevant in present conditions? &#8211; 2. survival is really all that matters.  <span id="more-544"></span></p>
<p>The first is easily dealt with &#8211; stronger cash flow &#8216;growth&#8217; than rivals can of course imply less <em>decline</em> when everyone is going backwards .. would you rather cash-flows fell by 50% or only 20%? We just need to add the check that this is sustainable &#8211; as I have argued with the <a href="http://www.kimwarren.com/2008/11/big-mistake-at-starbucks/" target="_blank">Starbucks</a> case, slashing costs to sustain immediate cash-flows [and support ROIC] is hardly welcome if it damages future cash flow.</p>
<p>I find the second response intriguing &#8211; that strategic management is all about survival, and anything extra management may achieve is just a welcome bonus. First, this does not seem to have been the primary concern of CEOs for most firms during reasonable economic conditions [at least after the high infant mortality of start-up!]. Maybe it should have been.</p>
<p>But there&#8217;s a bigger question as to whether survival should be the aim in any case. It is easy to see situations in which it would be in <em>everyone&#8217;s</em> interests for a firm <em>not </em>to survive, but to be acquired &#8211; both in positive and negative circumstances.</p>
<ul>
<li>In my time practising strategy, we constantly sought out promising smaller businesses to acquire and develop. This was good for their owners, who got good cash returns for their investment &#8211; good for customers, who got faster and wider access to the good products and services of those businesses &#8211; good for employees, who got more job and career opportunities &#8211; good for suppliers, who got a stronger, faster-growing  customer to supply &#8211; good for their management, who often had access to bigger jobs or else also left with a nice cash handout. Apart from competitors, I can&#8217;t think of any group who suffered. Indeed, many smaller businesses start up with the deliberate <em>intent</em> of being acquired in this way. For a big-scale example of a serial-acquiror who has exploited this phenomenon, it&#8217;s worth checking out Cisco &#8211; here&#8217;s an <a href="http://news.cnet.com/Ciscos-acquisition-guru-speaks-out/2008-1041_3-6042499.html" target="_blank">interview</a> with their head of business development and just one <a href="http://www.icmrindia.org/casestudies/catalogue/Business%20Strategy2/BSTR083.htm" target="_blank">case study</a> on the story .. you will find a ton more case studies at <a href="http://www.ecch.com" target="_blank">European Case Clearing House</a>.</li>
<li>It&#8217;s not even clear that death necessarily does harm when it&#8217;s the final outcome of business failure. If death = acquisition by another company, investors can get value that would otherwise have disappeared, customers can get continued provision of products and services that may otherwise have discontinued, suppliers get a continuing sales opportunity, and employees get the chance of a continued job rather than redundancy.</li>
</ul>
<p>Unfortunately, even when others would benefit hugely from a business being absorbed by another, one small group likely to suffer unfortunately dominates whether it happens or not &#8211; management themselves. So I find myself wondering how many firms are currently strugging to survive when it would be best if management spent their time seeking a buyer instead.</p>
<p>The only form of survival I can see that might be a reasonable aim for strategic management is the avoidance of bankruptcy &#8211; but that&#8217;s the extreme case, and responsible management should be able to find better solutions in almost all cases, well before that becomes unavoidable.</p>
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