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	<title>Talking about strategy &#187; scenario planning</title>
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	<link>http://kimwarren.com</link>
	<description>with Kim Warren</description>
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		<title>Internet Futures</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/internet-futures/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/internet-futures/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:54:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GBN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Business Network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monitor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology trends]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1670</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Predicting where technology could go is fraught with danger, but we should still explore possible futures and test our strategy against them. So World Must Prep for Bigger Net from Monitor looks a very useful resource. It is backed by Cisco research and scenario-based thinking from Global Business Network &#8211; and no, I&#8217;m not going to <a href='http://kimwarren.com/strategy/internet-futures/'>[...]</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Predicting where technology could go is fraught with danger, but we should still explore <em>possible</em> futures and test our strategy against them. So <a href="http://www.imakenews.com/eletra/go.cfm?z=monitormarketing%2C469664%2Cbc8sC8Jt%2C4309934%2CbhrV0vK" target="_blank">World Must Prep for Bigger Net</a> from Monitor looks a very useful resource. It is backed by Cisco research and scenario-based thinking from <a href="http://www.gbn.com/about/news_details.php?id=33" target="_blank">Global Business Network</a> &#8211; and no, I&#8217;m not going to try second-guessing their findings!</p>
<p><a href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">www.strategydynamics.com</a></p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Usable game theory</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/usable-game-theory/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/usable-game-theory/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Dec 2009 11:46:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[game theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hagen Lindstaedt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mckinsey Quarterly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario planning]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=870</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hagen Lindstaedt just alerted me to what looks a smart way of making game theory usable, with a neat link to scenario-based thinking. Probably quite challenging to do, but looks powerful &#8211; thanks Hagen. Looking forward to seeing more on how it works.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hagen Lindstaedt just alerted me to what looks a smart way of <a href="https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/ghost.aspx?ID=/Making_game_theory_work_for_managers_2493" target="_blank">making game theory usable</a>, with a neat link to scenario-based thinking. Probably quite challenging to do, but looks powerful &#8211; thanks Hagen. Looking forward to seeing more on how it works.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>More items on strategy in the crisis</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/more-items-on-strategy-in-the-crisis/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/more-items-on-strategy-in-the-crisis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Apr 2009 10:39:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[acquisitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerospace and Defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Booz & Co]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Consulting Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cheap assets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emerging markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Harvard Business Publishing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HBP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How Recessions Shake Up Industries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manufacturing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mckinsey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mckinsey Quarterly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monitor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seven Ways Forward]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sloan management review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy+business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Surviving the Downturn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taking Advantage of Tumultuous Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[talent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[targeting competitors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Three Opportunities to Seize]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timing Strategic Moves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winners and losers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amongst the continuing stream of articles on this, some good ones [I've left out some bad or downright dangerous ones] include: Seven Ways Forward from Booz &#38; Co&#8217;s strategy+business on, with specifics for Manufacturing, Consumer Products, Aerospace and Defense, Telecom, Finance, and general guidance on rebuilding capabilities for long-term growth. Surviving the Downturn: Lessons from <a href='http://kimwarren.com/strategy/more-items-on-strategy-in-the-crisis/'>[...]</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amongst the continuing stream of articles on this, some good ones [I've left out some bad or downright dangerous ones] include: <span id="more-570"></span></p>
<p><a href="http://www.strategy-business.com/press/freearticle/09104" target="_blank">Seven Ways Forward</a> from Booz &amp; Co&#8217;s strategy+business on, with specifics for Manufacturing, Consumer Products, Aerospace and Defense, Telecom, Finance, and general guidance on rebuilding capabilities for long-term growth.</p>
<p><a href="http://tk1.publicaster.com/DC/ctr.aspx?6C6164=36303232303936&amp;736272=9813&amp;747970=6874&amp;66=30" target="_blank">Surviving the Downturn: Lessons from Emerging Markets</a> from Sloan Mgmt Review [title self-explanatory]</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/tjan/2009/02/one-of-the-most-pernicious.html?cm_mmc=npv-_-LISTSERV-_-MAR_2009-_-STRATEGY" target="_blank">Three Opportunities to Seize in the Downturn</a> a blog post from Harvard Business Publishing [HBP] makes the case for two points I&#8217;ve raised before [a] that there&#8217;s cheap talent on the market right now, and [b] there are cheap opportunities to acquire key assets or entire businesses &#8230; which leads to the 3rd point, that there will be new winners and losers out of all this.</p>
<p>How Recessions Shake Up Industries in the Daily Stat from HBP [their link takes you to a different article] reports studies from McKinsey and BCG on how industry leaders fall and new leaders emerge in downturns &#8211; a reminder for your strategy to be <em>intentional</em> and targeted about challenging specific existing and new rivals, not just trying in some vague way to do better than others [a shortpiece on this at the end of chapter 5 in <a href="http://hbsp.ed10.net/r/2ZBO/5ZEY6/8A9EF7/5W9ZZ/548RJ/W1/h" target="_blank">my book</a>].</p>
<p><a href="http://e.mckinseyquarterly.com/W0RT00C782165301F2E302CB7A4300" target="_blank">Timing Strategic Moves</a> in the McKinsey Quarterly explains how scenario approaches can help avoid moving too soon or too late in these uncertain times. It&#8217;s rather focused on macro-economic and stock-market indicators, rather than [I'd prefer a more assertive stance be taken - choosing what to do and when in order to <em>make</em> the future play out as you want, rather than the passive response implied if not actually stated in this.]</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Strategic_Thinking/Strategic_planning_Three_tips_for_2009_2340" target="_blank">Strategic Planning: Three Tips for 2009</a> from McKinsey Quarterly explains the value of scenario-based planning, the need to intensify monitoring to detect how the recovery is changing things, and the need I have emphasised to look beyond the crisis. [Shame most firms were not doing enough monitoring <em>before</em> the recession!]</p>
<p>Also some good content in <a href="http://www.imakenews.com/eletra/go.cfm?z=monitormarketing%2C356096%2Cbc8sC8Jt%2C3134890%2CbfmPvJw" target="_blank">Taking Advantage of Tumultuous Times</a> from Monitor.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Testing assumptions</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/testing-assumptions/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/testing-assumptions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:24:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Ariely]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sloan management review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic decisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[testing assumptions]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=558</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An interview with Dan Ariely in Sloan Mgmt Review points up the need to test assumptions &#8211; critical, of course, and can&#8217;t fault Dan&#8217;s case. But doing as he asks on serious strategic decisions is not so easy. For many management choices, such as the pricing decision discussed in his interview, there are complex long-run dynamics that <a href='http://kimwarren.com/strategy/testing-assumptions/'>[...]</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An <a href="http://sloanreview.mit.edu/improvisations/2009/03/18/the-importance-of-testing-assumptions/" target="_blank">interview with Dan Ariely</a> in Sloan Mgmt Review points up the need to test assumptions &#8211; critical, of course, and can&#8217;t fault Dan&#8217;s case. But doing as he asks on serious strategic decisions is not so easy. <span id="more-558"></span></p>
<p>For many management choices, such as the pricing decision discussed in his interview, there are complex long-run dynamics that common methods simply can&#8217;t handle &#8211; hence the need for <a href="http://www.wiley.com/go/smd" target="_blank">strategy dynamics</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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