Why is the typical approach to business planning and forecasting flawed?
Strategic planning generally aims to get to an estimate of future sales and profits, so how these items are estimated is critical. Typically, you would start with a forecast for demand, and by assessing how competition could affect prices, get a value-forecast for the market. Setting targets for increased market share would then give a forecast for sales volume and revenue. There are however problems associated with this typical approach to business planning and forecasting…
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Though over-hyping of strategy issues is unhelpful, some radical changes do need dealing with. In Taking Advantage of Tumultuous Times: Claiming the Future, Eamonn Kelly, a Monitor partner, highlights a few big shifts. Most of the discussion is general and it’s not clear exactly what management should do, but one issue - the vast numbers of emerging consumers - can be evaluated and built into strategic plans. There is a simple reason this trend can trigger ‘siesmic shifts’ in demand -  Continue reading »

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