<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Talking about strategy &#187; business performance</title>
	<atom:link href="http://kimwarren.com/tag/business-performance/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://kimwarren.com</link>
	<description>with Kim Warren</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:00:48 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1</generator>
<xhtml:meta xmlns:xhtml="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" name="robots" content="noindex" />
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 21: The strategic architecture.</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-21-the-strategic-architecture/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-21-the-strategic-architecture/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jun 2011 09:10:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[causal links between variables]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer brand case example]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[essential elements describing business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flow rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interdependance between resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lookup relationships]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource levels]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1863</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The last three briefings have gone into the issue of interdependence between resources, and have brought us to the point where we now have the essential elements needed to describe an entire business and its performance...
Read on to find out what they are, and examine a simple example of a business with several resources.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">The last three briefings have gone into the issue of <em> interdependence between resources </em>, and have brought us to the point where we now have the essential elements needed to describe an entire business and its performance&#8230;<br />
        <em>What are they?</em>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;"><span id="more-1863"></span><br />
The essential elements needed to describe an entire business and its performance are:</p>
<ul>
<li>performance depends on resource-levels</li>
<li>resources accumulate through in- and out-flows</li>
<li>those flow-rates depend on existing resource levels, decisions and outside factors</li>
</ul>
<p>When we put together a complex business with several resources, this will get quite complex, so we will start with what is about the simplest example imaginable. Even so, the story is quite involved, so this briefing is longer than most. </p>
<p>The case concerns a consumer brand, for which, there are just two interdependent resources – consumers and stores. These are both on the ‘<em>demand</em>’ side of the business, so those on the supply side are being simplified out of the picture. Winning stores depends on a sales force (<em>a third resource</em>), but we assume we can just raise or lower this number at will. All the production and distribution issues are being left out, along with intangibles like the brand’s reputation. We simply assume the brand is appealing enough to its target consumers. </p>
<p>The initial numbers for the three resources are:</p>
<ul>
<li>consumers, of whom there are 3 million potentially available</li>
<li>retail stores, of which there are 20000 potentially available</li>
<li>the sales force, which starts at zero</li>
</ul>
<p>Management has three controls over this situation:</p>
<ul>
<li>advertizing spend, to capture consumers’ interest</li>
<li>sales force hiring</li>
<li>wholesale price (<em>i.e. the price charged to stores, who add a percentage mark-up to set the retail price to consumers</em>)</li>
</ul>
<p>After four years of sales and marketing efforts from its initial launch, the brand’s sales and profit statement is as shown in the following <em>table</em> and <em>figure 1.</em> </p>
<table style="font-family:Arial; font-size:smaller; border-bottom:solid 2; border-top:solid 2">
<tr>
<td colspan="3"><u><strong><em>SALES AND PROFIT STATEMENT FOR A CONSUMER BRAND</strong</em></u></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width:150px">Consumers interested (000)</td>
<td style="text-align:center">1,448</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumption per person </td>
<td style="text-align:center">0.08</td>
<td>units/month (constant)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sales force</td>
<td style="text-align:center">50</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stores stocking the brand</td>
<td style="text-align:center">5682</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Product availability</td>
<td style="text-align:center">0.60</td>
<td>fraction of consumers able to find the product</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sales volume</td>
<td style="text-align:center">691</td>
<td>000 units per month</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><u><strong><em>$000/month</strong></em></u></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sales revenue</td>
<td style="text-align:right">6,220&nbsp;</td>
<td> . . . at a wholesale price of $9.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Product cost</td>
<td style="text-align:right">(4,838)</td>
<td> . . . at a unit cost of $7.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gross profit</td>
<td style="text-align:right">1,332&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Advertizing spend</td>
<td style="text-align:right">(500)</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Salesforce cost</td>
<td style="text-align:right">(250)</td>
<td> . . . at $5000 per person per month</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brand profit</td>
<td style="text-align:right">632&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="text-align:right; font-size:x-small"><i>Rounding causes small errors</i></td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Constant advertizing of $500,000 per month, and sales effort that built up over the first two years, were unable to drive sales growth quickly enough to generate gross profits that would recover those sales and advertizing costs until well into the third year. Even after this breakeven point was reached, sales growth slowed and by month 48 is nearly flat. It will take some years more before the losses of the product’s launch period are recovered. </p>
<p><strong><em>Figure 1:</strong> A consumer brand’s performance after 4 years</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb21_01.gif" alt="Diagram: consumer brand performance example" width="400" height="300" /></p>
<p>Why did this disappointing result arise? The key resources grew too slowly</p>
<p><strong><em>Figure 2:</strong> Slow growth of consumers and stores.</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb21_02.gif" alt="Diagram: slow growth of consumers and stores" width="400" height="300" /></p>
<p>These resources are strongly interdependent – more consumers wanting the brand should help win stores quickly, and more visibility of the product in stores increases consumers’ interest in it. So why the slow growth? Like any system, this one needs some ‘push’ to get it started – it looks like this system just did not get enough of an early push.</p>
<p>Too little advertizing did not develop the number of interested consumers …</p>
<p><strong><em>Figure 3: </strong>Drivers of growth in the number of consumers </em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb21_03.gif" alt="Diagram: driving consumer growth" width="400" height="300" /></p>
<p>… and too little sales effort grew the number of stores stocking the brand too slowly. </p>
<p><strong><em>Figure 4:</strong> Drivers of growth in stores stocking the brand </em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb21_04.gif" alt="Diagram: driving stores uptake" width="400" height="300" /></p>
<p>Note that sales people soon have to spend time looking after stores they already won, so do not have time to capture new ones.</p>
<p>Space does not allow a more extensive picture of the architecture to be shown or discussed, but you will find the model explained in detail on <em>pages 192-202</em> of the text book.   </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>&#8220;<em>Look-up</em>&#8221; relationships</strong></p>
<p>Throughout the briefings we have emphasized that the causal links between variables have a specific, strong meaning – that if <strong>A</strong> and <strong>B</strong> are linked into <strong>C</strong>, then it means <strong>C</strong> can be calculated or estimated if we know the value of <strong>A</strong> and <strong>B</strong>.</p>
<p>Note the phrase “ <em>… or estimated …</em>” – the real world is not so helpful to us that every relationship between factors can be easily and precisely described with a simple arithmetic relationship like &#8220;<em>revenue = sales * price</em>&#8220;. Luckily it is often possible to quite accurately estimate one variable’s values if we know another.</p>
<p>In this case, for example, the rate at which consumers are won depends (<em>amongst other things</em>) on how widely the product is available. Put simply, the more stores stock the brand, the larger the fraction of potential consumers who see it and may thus be added to the number who are interested. Now there is no &#8220;<em>formula</em>&#8221; for working out how that availability depends on the number of stores, such as &#8220;<em>availability = number of stores stocking the brand / total stores</em>&#8220;.</p>
<p>But we can nevertheless estimate that relationship quite well. The first 1,000 stores (<em>5% of the total</em>) will likely be larger than average and reach higher numbers of consumers, so availability might be 10% if that is all the stores we have won. The next 1,000 may reach somewhat fewer consumers on average, so at 2,000 stores availability may be 18%, and so on. You can see in <em>figure 3</em> that 5682 stores (28%) reach about 60% of consumers.</p>
<p>This is an example of a “<em>look-up function</em>”, so-called because, if we know X wee can look up a value for Y. Relationships like this are frequently useful for describing relationships that are not known arithmetically, but are nevertheless well understood by management. They can therefore be very helpful for arriving at agreement about what is going on in situations where people have differing views. You can even go on to put different assumptions into your models to see what happens if one or other views is correct. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 4 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</strong>, pages 192-202 </em></p>
<p><strong>Take the course</strong><br />
You can take a full course in strategy dynamics online: see <a title="On-line strategy course: Mastering Strategy Dynamics" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/courses/mastering-strategy-dynamics/">our website</a> for information.</p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-21-the-strategic-architecture/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 13: Doing it right with accumulating resources</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-13-doing-it-right-with-accumulating-resources/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-13-doing-it-right-with-accumulating-resources/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:02:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business management analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[causal logic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[management performance outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[organizational performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance depends on resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pipe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource accumulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource inflow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource outflow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Resources accumulate and deplete]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[staff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theory of performance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1715</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Briefings 11-14 talk about ‘accumulating resources’. At one level, this concept may seem rather simple and obvious – ‘So what?’ you may ask yourself. Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering. 

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">There is one last thing to do before going on to the implications and uses of resource-accumulation.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;"><em>Sorry</em> – but it’s just got to be done right! If you get this wrong, everything else you try to do with strategy dynamics will be messed up.</p>
<p><span id="more-1715"></span><br />
<strong>Defining and measuring resources and their flows</strong></p>
<p>We were careful in earlier briefings to make sure the causal connections were arithmetically accurate, for example, that quantity sold per month was equal to customers multiplied by quantity per customer per month. It is just as important to define the units of resources and flows accurately. This is simple, though:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Whatever the units by which a resource is measured, the inflows and outflows are always measured in the same units per time period.</strong></p>
<p>There is <em>never</em> any exception to this rule. The table below lists the major types of resource, the units by which they are measured, typical inflows and outflows for each, and the units for measuring those flows. The only judgment to be made about the correct units for resource flow rates concerns the choice of time period – should it be <em>people per week, per month</em>, or <em>per year</em>? I previously explained that time periods should be short enough for change during any period to be relatively small, compared with the overall time-scale of the situation you are looking at. If, for example, you are looking at how profits have been changing from quarter to quarter, then customer gains and losses can be measured in <em>customers per quarter</em>. If you are in a faster moving business and want to understand why sales rates change substantially from week to week, then you need information on weekly sales, and your measure of customer flows should be <em>customers won per week and customers lost per week</em>. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" width="400" height="200"alt="Table: measuring in- and out-flows for various resources" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_01.gif"></p>
<p>The last item in the table shows a small complication that comes up in some cases – when a resource itself includes time. Production capacity for, say, a cement or steel producer is measured in “<em>tons/day.</em>” If we change capacity by adding new equipment or closing a plant, the result is an inflow or outflow of a certain number of “<em>tons/day this year.</em>” This is a one-off inflow, but continuous changes in flow rates may also occur. The production rate for an oil field is measured in “<em>barrels per day</em>”, but as a field is drained, its production rate typically falls. This decline would therefore be measured in “<em>barrels per day, per year</em>.”</p>
<p><strong>Depicting resources, flows and the factors that drive them</strong></p>
<p>To continue in our quest for an accurate causal explanation of performance, we must maintain the discipline of depicting correctly “<em>what causes what</em>,” just as we did with the causal connections in earlier briefings. Since the current quantity of a resource is “<em>caused by</em>” whatever we had at the start of a period, plus what was added, minus what was lost, it <em>cannot</em> be caused by anything else. The first figure below must therefore be wrong—the marketing spend of $5 000 per month cannot explain the number of 1 015 customers at the end of the month. It is missing all three of the numbers needed to work out that quantity (<em>the number at the start of the month, and the numbers gained and lost</em>), and the causal link from <em>marketing spend</em> to <em>customers</em> is meaningless.</p>
<p>The second figure shows the correct causal structure. The “<em>stock and flow</em>” structure includes all the values needed to explain the end-of-month number of customers. It also shows the causal link that “<em>marketing spend of $5 000 per month has won 20 customers during the month.</em>”</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: a frequent error - marketing creates more customers" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_02.gif"></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: correction,  marketing drives customers won per month" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_03.gif"></p>
<p>(<em>If you ever look at simulation models of how an organization is performing over time, you might see links like the ‘illegal’ one in the first figure. Don’t be misled, though, the simulation needs to know the start-value for the resource, and those links only set that value (1000 customers in this case). All values for later time periods are calculated from the in- and outflows.</em>)</p>
<p><strong>It’s just hard!</strong></p>
<p>It’s pretty obvious that if we have 100 customers now and win five during this month, then we will have 105 next month. Obvious, yes, but it turns out the human mind simply cannot take this simple notion and work out how resource levels will change over time if the flow-rate varies. Believe it or not, <em>most</em> Masters students at top-level technical universities cannot look at a picture like this with the time-chart for ‘total customers missing and sketch in accurately what will happen to that stock. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: it's difficult to see how levels behave" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_04.gif"></p>
<p>They aren’t dumb – it just seems that the ability to do this had no evolutionary value. If our cave-dwelling ancestors had no food, they went out and got some – they didn’t bother estimating the rate of depletion and how many days they could lounge around before getting hungry. Later, when humanity could store food, this became a useful skill (<em>indeed this need triggered the first use of ‘accounting’ – for stocks of grain!</em>)</p>
<p>This estimation becomes particularly difficult when, as is common, more than one resource flow is involved. Customers may be lost as well as won, so this overall win rate of five customers per month could easily be the net result of winning 10 and losing 5 each month, winning 20 and losing 15, or even winning 100 and losing 95. These alternative situations are not equivalent! A company experiencing the last of these cases will have some serious problems:</p>
<ul>
<li>it requires effort and cash to win customers, so a high rate of customer churn will be costly</li>
<li>the large number of customers being lost will likely damage the company’s reputation</li>
<li>if there is a finite number of potential customers, the company risks running out of customers</li>
</ul>
<p>So – it is worth reemphasizing an important implication of this structure:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>It is vital to know, separately, resource in-flows and out-flows.</strong></p>
<p>Sorry if you feel I’ve beaten you up rather a lot in this briefing. Believe me – if you take the time to really work at these principles until you have them nailed, you will thank me for it later! </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>Does this matter?</strong></p>
<p>It does if the confusion makes us mistake the consequences of our decisions. </p>
<ul>
<li>If you are worried about the level of debt on your credit card, for example, and you do not appreciate the distinction between levels and rates, you might imagine that cutting your “<em>level</em>” of spending would reduce your debt. But up to a certain point it won’t—reducing the rate of spending would merely slow the rate at which your debt is rising!</li>
<li>A company concerned with falling sales revenue might mistakenly think that reducing the “<em>level</em>” of customer churn would lead to increasing sales. But customer churn is the rate of customer losses (<em>units being customers per month</em>), and sales revenue will continue falling until that rate is less than the rate of customer acquisition.</li>
<li>The confusion also matters on bigger issues. Governments are to varying degrees committed to reducing the “<em>level</em>” of greenhouse gas emissions, in the belief that this will “<em>tackle</em>” global warming. It won’t. Greenhouse gas emissions are a rate (<em>units are billions of tons per year</em>) that is adding to the level of those gases in the atmosphere. As long as the emission rate exceeds the absorption rate of the planet’s biosphere, any reduction in emissions is merely slowing the rate at which that level is rising. If you are filling a bathtub with a fire hose, turning the hose down by a few percent is not going to stop your house from flooding!
</li>
</ul>
<p>This has important implications for how management decides on objectives. If you fear that your credit card debt is too high, the only appropriate objective is for your spending rate to be cut to less than your repayments, minus interest charges. The company with falling revenue must aim for the rate of customer churn to be less than its rate of customer acquisition. And if governments believe high levels of greenhouse gases to be dangerous, then the only appropriate aim is for the rate of emissions to fall below the planet’s absorption rate, which is a very large cut indeed. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 3 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</em></strong>, pages 127-130 </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-13-doing-it-right-with-accumulating-resources/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 12: Accumulating resources over time</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-12-accumulating-resources-over-time/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-12-accumulating-resources-over-time/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Feb 2011 10:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business management analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[causal logic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[management performance outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[organizational performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance depends on resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pipe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource accumulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource inflow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource outflow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Resources accumulate and deplete]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[staff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theory of performance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1689</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Briefings 11-14 talk about ‘accumulating resources’. At one level, this concept may seem rather simple and obvious – ‘So what?’ you may ask yourself. Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering. 

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">The previous briefing explained that <strong>accumulating resources</strong> are <strong>important</strong>. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">So now we need to understand how to work out the result when it happens.</p>
<p><span id="more-1689"></span><br />
The following figure shows how to picture this idea. The box icon in the middle is the ‘<em>tank</em>’ containing the cash in your bank account, and the oval icons are the pumps, pumping cash in and out at some rate. If the inflow and outflow rates differ, as they do here, you know exactly how fast the resource is changing, so if these numbers continue through time, you will have $1050 at the end of next month, $1100 at the end of the month after, and so on. It is also easy to work out what will happen if, say, your rent goes up from $200 to $300/month. </p>
<p>This math is known as “<em>integration</em>” but don’t worry if this sounds scary – if this illustration makes sense to you, it seems you already know how to “<em>integrate</em>” resources over time, even if you didn’t realize it. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: bank account" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_01.gif"></p>
<p>This figure only looks at the relationship between a resource and its flow rates for a single period, but we made a big deal in previous briefings about the need to understand how performance varies continuously over time … so we also need to understand what happens to resource levels over time … so we need to understand the relationship between resources and their flow rates from period to period. </p>
<p>To clarify this point, the next figure shows sales for some product, driven by customers who buy at a steady rate of seven units per month. The business starts with 100 customers, and wins five new customers per month, ending the year with 160 customers. Sales start the year at the rate of 700 units per month, and end the year at 1120 units per month (<em>160 customers * 7 units per customer per month</em>). </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: customers create sales" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_02.gif"></p>
<p>What happens when a customer flow rate is not constant but itself is changing over time. In the final figure, the business is winning 20 customers per month, and initially losing only 12/month. But as each month passes, this loss rate increases, rising in successive months to 14, 16, 18, and so on, until by the end of month 12, customers are leaving at the rate of 36 per month.</p>
<p>We have a straight-line trend on customer losses, and a constant win rate, but the stock of customers follows a curving path through time, peaking at 120 during month five (<em>when 20 customers are won and another 20 are lost</em>), then decreasing ever more rapidly until the year ends with only 64 customers in place. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: changing numbers of customers affect sales" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_03.gif"></p>
<p>Although this may seem an unfamiliar way of looking at business performance, it simply re-presents what could equally be shown in a spreadsheet. The table at the foot of this briefing shows the causal logic and calculation sequence:</p>
<ul>
<li>the resources available at the start of each month (<em>customers</em>) determine the performance rate (<em>total sales</em>)</li>
<li>resources added and lost during the month (<em>new customers and customers lost</em>) determine the resource that at the start of next month</li>
</ul>
<p>The spreadsheet adds an extra line for average sales last month, to get a more accurate explanation for the performance over each period.</p>
<p>Note that the resource flow rates here—new customers and customers lost per month – tell us the trajectory on which the business is heading at the start of each period. The customer base starts heading upwards by a net +8 per month. By month 4, customer losses match the win rate, so there is no net change in customers. By month 12, customer losses are way faster than the win rate, so into the next month (month 13), the net change will be –16/month.</p>
<p>This structure has a critical implication:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">It is vital to know, separately, resource inflows and outflows.<br />
</strong></p>
<p>Winning 20 customers and losing 12 is not the same as winning 100 and losing 92! </p>
<p>Where in your business would understanding the inflows and outflows of a key reource make a difference to management?</p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" width="440" height="200" alt="Table: illustrative customer in- and out-flows" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_04.gif"></p>
</td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>More than a ‘<em>theory</em>’!</strong></p>
<p>The simple mechanism captured in these figures portray a deeply fundamental principle – the amount of any resource right now is the sum of everything ever added, minus everything ever lost. This is not a matter of opinion, a result of surveys, research or statistical analysis. It is more even than a “<em>theory</em>”—it just IS the way the world works, and is mathematically unavoidable. There is no other explanation for the amount of cash in your account besides the historical sum of what was paid in and out.</p>
<p><strong>Market pain?</strong></p>
<p>Well – “this is all pretty obvious”, you might say – and indeed it is, but it is only obvious, and helpful, if you bother to ask about it! … and serious folk in serious organizations fail to do so amazingly often. Take the case of a branded pain-relief product in the US market. Market growth was minimal, and sales were changing only at a very slow rate indeed. However, far from the stability that these low rates implied, buyers of pain-relief products were actually churning quite quickly, with nearly 13% switching their preferred product each year. Consequently, although net change in consumer numbers and sales was very small, there was great scope for improving the situation. Rather than trying still harder to capture new customer, attention shifted to retaining specific consumers who were leaving most rapidly. (<em>Customers leaving buy more than new customers, so sales were actually falling in spite of increasing customer numbers</em>).</p>
<p>Further work showed that customer churn could readily be reduced by two percentage points a year, comparable to the best performing competitor, an improvement worth over $1 million per year in extra sales, and a significant increase in market share. Better still, this could be achieved with a lower marketing spend than previously, since there was less competitive marketing activity directed at the consumer group who were leaving. </p>
<p>Sure, this was obvious – but the fact is that no-one had asked this question about customer win- and loss-rates before. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 3 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</em></strong>, pages 128-133 </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-12-accumulating-resources-over-time/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 11: Resource accumulation</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-11-resource-accumulation/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-11-resource-accumulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jan 2011 09:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business management analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[causal logic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[management performance outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[organizational performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance depends on resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pipe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource accumulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Resources accumulate and deplete]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[staff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theory of performance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1647</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The next few briefings 11-14 are going to talk a lot about ‘accumulating resources’. At one level, this concept may seem rather simple and obvious – ‘So what?’ you may ask yourself. Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering. 

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">At one level, <em><strong>Resource Accumulation</strong></em> may seem rather simple and obvious.<br />
‘<em>So what?</em>’ you may ask yourself.<br />
Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">The next few briefings are going to talk a lot about ‘<em><strong>accumulating resources</em></strong>’.</p>
<p><span id="more-1647"></span></p>
<p>Just to recap, in earlier briefings I explained the importance of focusing on how organizational performance changes over time, and also how to trace the causal logic that explains this performance, until that chain reaches the underlying resources determining demand and capacity, revenue and costs – customers, capacity, staff, product range and cash.So the next logical question is “<strong>What determines the quantity of customers and staff (<em>and every other resource</em>) at any time?</strong>” This is where the unique characteristic of resources and other “<strong><em>asset-stocks</em></strong>” comes into play. So far all the causal relationships discussed are of the form:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>X depends in some way on Y, Z, W etc.</strong>,<br />
e.g. ‘<em>Profit = revenue minus costs.</em>’,<br />
or ‘<em>I can estimate the fraction of customers who can get my product if I know how many stores stock it.</em>’</p>
<p>However, the verbal explanation for resources is:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>The quantity of resource X today is the total amount of X that has ever been added, minus the quantity that has ever been lost.</strong></p>
<p>Let’s be clear what this implies: </p>
<ul>
<li>The number of customers you have today is precisely the sum of every customer ever won, minus every customer that left, since the day your business started. It is the customer gains and losses that are explained by price, products, marketing and sales effort, not the quantity of customers itself. </li>
<li>The number of staff you have today is precisely the sum of every person you ever hired, minus every person who ever left or was fired. It is gains and losses of staff that are explained by salaries, career prospects, and so on. </li>
<li>The number of products offered today is the sum of all the products ever launched, minus every product discontinued. </li>
<li>The amount of cash you have today is the sum of all the cash that ever came into the business, minus all cash ever spent.</li>
</ul>
<p>… but we generally don’t want, or need, to go right back to the beginning! So to understand what’s happening right now, we can start with how much resource we had at the start of last period (<em>at the start of last month we had 50 staff</em>). Then, just count what was added or lost during that period (<em>we hired 5 staff, but 7 left</em>), to know precisely how much resource there is at the end of the period (<em>48 staff</em>). That will then be how much there is to start the <em><strong>next</em></strong> period. </p>
<p>To know accurately how the quantity of a resource changes over a longer period, this calculation needs to be repeated sufficiently often. If we start the year with 100 customers, and add five every month, we will end the year with 160 customers, but if we add five in January, three in February, seven in March and lose two in April, we will need to know every month’s change in order to calculate the year-end number … and each month’s number may also be important in itself, of course. Anyone with a knowledge of accounts will quickly realize that the distinction between asset stock and other items is the same as that between balance sheet (<em>reported at a point in time</em>) and profit and loss items (<em>totaled over a defined period</em>) – it’s just that here we are extending the range of things we want to record. </p>
<p>So, since performance depends directly on the resources available at any time, the challenge for managers is how to build and maintain the quantity of each resource. To help understand this, think of a resource as behaving like water in a bathtub or tank. The inflow rate is how quickly water is flowing in through the faucet [<em>‘<strong>tap</strong>’ in UK English</em>] and the outflow rate measures how quickly water is running away through the drain hole. In just the same way, resources are built by the flow of new resource into the stock and depleted through losses &#8211; resources “<em><strong>flowing</strong></em>” out of the tank. This idea is captured for a staff resource in figure below. The “<em><strong>tank</em></strong>” in the middle holds the number of staff we have right now. To the left is the outside world, where there are many people, some of whom might become future staff. The big “<em><strong>pipe</em></strong>” flowing into the tank has a pump on it (<em>the oval symbol</em>) that drives how fast that stock of staff is being added. On the right, another pump on a pipe flowing out of the stock determines how fast we are losing staff, to the outside world.</p>
<p><em>Building, and losing, the staff resource.</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb11_01.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p>This picture begins to show why the firm’s history is so important. The level of resource we have today is on a trajectory through time, reflecting how well we have been building it (<em>and holding on to it!</em>) in the past. This not only explains why the business is in its present state, but also its trajectory into the immediate future. </p>
<p>Returning to the idea that theory is an explanation of “what causes what, and how,” this is then the core theory that lies at the heart of how business and other organizations perform – that rates of gain and loss over time for any resource explains the quantity of that resource at every moment, and they do so by accumulating.</p>
<p>This second principle can be added to our emerging theory of performance, which will, when complete, becomes useful and powerful:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>performance depends on resources</strong>, and</li>
<li><strong>Resources accumulate and deplete</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>To complete the picture, we will also need to explain what causes those rates of gain and loss for each resource – a question we will look at in later briefings. </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>Wings, aerofoils and theory.</strong></p>
<p>It is important to appreciate just how fundamental asset-stocks are to understanding and directing organizations’ performance. To take an analogy, feathers and flapping wings may be common among things that fly, but don’t ‘<em>explain</em>’ flight. That understanding made little progress until the properties of aerofoils were discovered. makes air passing over a wing move faster than air passing underneath, so the air on top is less dense. The wing is therefore subject to more pressure from below than from above, and experiences lift upwards. As far as winged flying things are concerned, it is the aerofoil (<em>not feathers or flapping wings</em>) that is the single vital component without which it is impossible to explain performance, whether of a plane, bird, insect or tree seed. It is also impossible to anticipate the behavior of any new wing or change of design without understanding how that component functions.</p>
<p>The accumulating asset-stock is as fundamental to the performance of organizations over time as the aerofoil is to the behavior of winged objects. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 3 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</em></strong>, pages 121-124 </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-11-resource-accumulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 10: Defining, Specifying and Measuring Tangible Resources</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-10-defining-specifying-and-measuring-tangible-resources/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-10-defining-specifying-and-measuring-tangible-resources/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jan 2011 09:00:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business management analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[common tangible resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumables]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand-side architecture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[durable goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[installed base]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[management performance outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[opportunities and threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[production capacity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[range of products or services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[service capacity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[staff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strengths and weaknesses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[suppliers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply-side resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SWOT analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tangible resources]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1584</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A useful, but not exhaustive, checklist of tangible resources to start from is as follows: customers, products, production capacity, staff and cash. Since organizations exist to “supply” some form of “demand,” Kim''s 10th Briefing looks at demand-side resources first. 

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">What would be a useful <em><strong>checklist</strong></em> of <em><strong>tangible resources</strong></em>?</p>
<p>&#8230; <strong>customers, products, production capacity, staff and cash</strong>.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">Since organizations exist to “<em><strong>supply</strong></em>” some form of “<em><strong>demand</strong></em>,” let’s look at demand-side resources first&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-1584"></span></p>
<p>The most obvious resource on the demand side of the relationship is “<em><strong>customers</strong></em>” – or clients, users or other terms, depending on the industry. Two important issues to consider are, first, that customers may come in multiple varieties (<em>think consumer/business for telecoms, or leisure/business customers for hotels</em>). Secondly, a company may supply one set of customers, who then have further customers of their own, and these may in turn have further customers. Whilst only the first group is strictly the company’s set of “<em><strong>customers</strong></em>” the other parties downstream in the chain are critical to driving the company’s sales. For a consumer brand such as Coca-Cola or Proctor &amp; Gamble, the direct customers are retailers, such as Wal-Mart or Tesco, who then sell to consumers. So a full explanation of business performance requires information on final customers as well as about the direct customers or intermediaries involved.</p>
<p><em>Demand-side architecture for a consumer brand company.</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb10_01.gif" alt="" width="435" height="252" /></p>
<p>Other special cases include:</p>
<ul>
<li>not-for-profit organizations, where “demand” still comes from individuals or groups served by the organization</li>
<li>organizations that must serve the needs of two distinct groups, e.g. newspapers serve readers and advertisers, or eBay who must satisfy both buyers and sellers</li>
<li>commodity markets, such as oil or agricultural products – where there is sometimes no identifiable customer</li>
</ul>
<p>For “<em><strong>durable goods</strong></em>”, the customer resource is best described as an “<em><strong>installed base</strong></em>” – sales come from the rate at which new customers arrive, not from continuing existence of these customers. [<em>Strictly, the installed base describes the goods themselves, rather than the owners</em>]. Depending on the product it may be easy or difficult to keep in touch with the people who own the product – your sofa, for example does not need an annual service whilst you would be careless not to send your car to be checked over! In some cases, the installed base continues to generate a separate flow of sales, either from service (<em>e.g. cars, elevators or aircraft engines</em>) or from “<em><strong>consumables</strong></em>” (<em>e.g. ink for printers or games for games consoles</em>). The bottom line, though, is that in some way or other, sales nearly always depend directly on customer numbers.</p>
<p><strong>SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES </strong></p>
<p>All organizations need some form of <strong>production or service capacity</strong> – manufacturing capacity, shelf space in stores, airlines’ aircraft and seats. In some cases, capacity consists of people who provide service capacity, and this is a common feature of many public services and voluntary organizations. Organizations also need staff to undertake the various functions that have to be fulfilled (<em>e.g. marketing, sales, product development, support, accounts and administration to name just a few</em>). For a full analysis it is therefore helpful when thinking about staff to check that everyone associated with the organization’s “<em><strong>capacity</strong></em>” resource has been covered.</p>
<p>Next, all organizations have some <strong>range of products or services</strong> that they provide. If the range is too limited, they may miss out on substantial groups of consumers: too wide, and the sales they achieve may be fragmented into uneconomically small amounts. Product range can take a variety of forms – for airlines, it is the routes served, and for a TV or radio channel, it is the range of programs broadcast. Whatever its form, though, the range of products has implications for the numbers and skills of people needed to deliver them.</p>
<p>Although not directly associated with “<em><strong>supply</strong></em>” of products and services to customers, <strong>cash is an important resource</strong> that enables the other supply-side resources to be developed. It is important to note that cash has a negative counterpart – debt – that drives the cost of interest payments. However it is not always essential to include cash in the strategic analysis unless</p>
<ul>
<li>the organization is in financial difficulties</li>
<li>the strategy requires costly initiatives</li>
<li>the organization concerned is a new venture, which has access to only a limited pool of potential cash to fund its development</li>
</ul>
<p>It might seem puzzling that “<em><strong>suppliers</strong></em>” themselves are not listed as a universally important factor. Supply can be a constraint in certain circumstances, usually where the physical source itself is limited. Some organizations – Toyota is a good example – have also made a powerful platform for their own performance by developing close relationships with supplier. In either case, it would be appropriate to include them in the analysis.</p>
<p><strong>SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES </strong></p>
<p>This table summarizes how the most common categories of tangible resources might appear for certain businesses. The list includes two items—intermediaries and cash—that may need to be added in a significant number of cases.</p>
<table style="font-size: x-small; width: 5px; valign: top;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="6"><strong>THE MOST COMMON TANGIBLE RESOURCES IN STRATEGY ANALYSIS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Tangible resource</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Coffee shop chain</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Law firm<br />
</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Start-up airline</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Consumer brand</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"><strong>Demand-side</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Customers</strong></td>
<td valign="top">Consumers</td>
<td valign="top">Clients</td>
<td valign="top">Customers</td>
<td valign="top">Consumers</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em>Intermediaries</em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em>Retailers</em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"><strong>Supply-side</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Capacity</strong></td>
<td valign="top">Stores</td>
<td valign="top">Professional staff</td>
<td valign="top">Aircraft</td>
<td valign="top"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Staff</strong></td>
<td valign="top">People</td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top">Service staff</td>
<td valign="top">Sales force</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Product range</strong></td>
<td valign="top">Products</td>
<td valign="top">Legal services</td>
<td valign="top">Routes offered</td>
<td valign="top">Brands offered</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em><strong>Suppliers</strong></em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top">Airports</td>
<td valign="top"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em><strong>Cash</strong></em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em>cash</em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="6"><em>(Italic indicates additional resources that may be important in some cases)</em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>This table should provide a useful checklist for most situations.</p>
<p><strong>Doing it right: give resources their proper names</strong></p>
<p>To be useful for explaining performance and developing strategy, each resource will need to be used to calculate other items, so they must be properly defined. The most important guideline for this purpose is to specify a measurement for any resource in its own physical terms – do not use some proxy instead. “<em><strong>Staff</strong></em>” are people, “<em><strong>customers</strong></em>” are people or organizations, a “<em><strong>product range</strong></em>” consists of actual products or services. Using abstract terms makes it hard to quantify resources and to calculate or estimate their impact on other parts of the system.</p>
<p>The occasional exception to this rule concerns “<em><strong>capacity</strong></em>” which can arise from a complex mix of physical items and activities. This may mean that you have to define and measure “<em><strong>capacity</strong></em>” in terms of the potential output, e.g. a chemical plant’s physical capacity consists of its vessels and pipe-work, but it is more useful for strategy purposes to measure it in ‘tons per day’.</p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="112" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="100" height="160" /></p>
<p><em><strong>SWOT analysis</strong></em></p>
<p>If you have had any kind of general business course you have probably come across <strong>SWOT</strong> analysis—<strong>S</strong>trengths, <strong>W</strong>eaknesses, <strong>O</strong>pportunities and <strong>T</strong>hreats. Whilst considered by many to be an outdated and simplistic approach, most managers still think of <strong>SWOT</strong> first when asked how they would go about assessing their strategy. So how can a resource appraisal clarify to a firm’s <strong>SWOT</strong> analysis?</p>
<p>The <strong>SWOT</strong> framework splits naturally into two halves:</p>
<p><strong>Opportunities and Threats:</strong> features of the external environment, mostly competitors and other external pressures. Two formal methods in particular deal with these issues – analysis of the “<strong>five forces</strong>” of the competitive environment (<em>competitors, customers, new entrants, substitutes, and suppliers</em>) and analysis of “<strong>PEST</strong>” factors (<em>political, economic, social, and technological forces</em>).</p>
<p><strong>Strengths and Weaknesses</strong> on the other hand are features of the firm itself, relative to competitors and success factors in the market, and have a closer connection with a resource-based approach. Strengths and weaknesses can be evaluated in terms of resources and capabilities that the firm has, or needs, for its system to work. These can then be compared to levels or qualities of resources available to actual or potential rivals.</p>
<p>We can therefore add to a <strong>SWOT</strong> analysis by carrying out a quantified, fact-based analysis of resources, including an evaluation of their relative strengths and weaknesses.</p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 2 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</strong>,</em> pp 95-110</p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" width="100" height="170" /><br />
&gt; Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-10-defining-specifying-and-measuring-tangible-resources/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 9: Links to the &#8216;resource based view&#8217; of strategy.</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-9-links-to-the-resource-based-view-of-strategy/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-9-links-to-the-resource-based-view-of-strategy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Dec 2010 09:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[academic concepts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[academic study of strategy and performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business management analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[competitors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developing strategic resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inadequate resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[industry forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[intangible resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[management performance outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[McDonald's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new-entrants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[owerful system]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBV resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resource based view]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryanair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shortfall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Southwest airlines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[suppliers and substitute products and services]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1529</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Have you ever puzzled over academic concepts? ...and thought, "What does this mean? Should I be using this?" Join Kim Warren, as he discusses some important academic "stuff" in his 9th Briefing.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">Have you ever puzzled over <em><strong>academic concepts</strong></em>? &#8230;thought, &#8220;<em><strong>What does this mean? Should I be using this?</strong>&#8220;</em> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">This briefing discusses some academic <em>stuff</em>, which is important for teachers to understand. It&#8217;s useful for professionals too, because you may come across these concepts, puzzle about what they mean, and wonder if you should be using them. I have put a few key references at the end.<br />
<span id="more-1529"></span> </p>
<p>In very simple terms, the academic study of strategy and performance has shifted its attention in recent decades. From the early 1980s, people focused on how &#8216;industry forces&#8217; [<em>competitors, customers, new-entrants, suppliers and substitute products and services</em>] impacted on the profits firms in an industry could achieve and how strategy could cope with those forces. </p>
<p>By the 1990s, though, it looked like these issues did not explain much about why some firms perform better than others. Research identified that things about the business itself seemed to be more important, e.g. how much they spent on R&amp;D or marketing. [Translation "<em>You can do well in tough markets, and mess up in attractive ones!</em>"] Further investigation suggested firms could sustain strong performance by developing &#8216;<em>strategic</em>&#8216; resources that others could not copy. This idea has crystallized into as the so-called &#8216;<em>resource-based view</em>&#8216; of strategy &#8211; affectionately known as RBV. </p>
<p>Since we have repeatedly talked about the principle that resources drive performance, you might think that this idea and RBV are one and the same thing &#8211; they aren&#8217;t. </p>
<p>An accepted definition of RBV resources is</p>
<p>&#8220;<em>&#8230;all assets, capabilities, competencies, organizational processes, firm attributes, information, knowledge, and so forth that are controlled by a firm and that enable the firm to conceive of and implement strategies designed to improve its efficiency and effectiveness.</em>&#8220; </p>
<p>Management often blames any shortfall in performance on &#8220;<em>inadequate resources</em>&#8220;, so it may seem self-evident that resources are important, but RBV claims that only certain special items matter. Since many resources are easy to get &#8211; cash can be borrowed, production capacity can be bought, staff can be hired &#8211; any firm that gets behind on such things simply copies what its competitors have. [<em>Yes I know, if the academics think it's so easy, they should go try it!</em>] So the RBV asserts that any resource can only give sustained advantage if it is valuable, rare, hard to imitate, and works with other organizational factors &#8211; the so-called <em>&#8220;VRIO criteria.&#8221;</em> </p>
<p>To see if any resource will give you a competitive edge, RBV recommends you ask the following questions: </p>
<ul>
<li><em><strong>Is it durable?</em></strong> A resource that deteriorates or becomes obsolete quickly is not likely to provide sustainable advantage, e.g. production equipment wears out, and staff skills get out of date.</li>
<li><em><strong>Is it mobile or tradeable?</em></strong> Many resources are easily bought or taken from other firms. Equipment suppliers may sell the latest technology to your rivals as well as yourselves, customer lists can be purchased, and staff can be attracted by better salaries.</li>
<li><em><strong>Is it easy to copy?</em></strong> Many resources can be easily copied by rivals, so these too offer little scope for competitive advantage. You might launch a great new product but if it is easily copied the benefit will be short lived.</li>
<li><em><strong>Can the resource be substituted?</em></strong> Even if you cannot buy or copy your competitors? resources, you may still be able to challenge them by using something else. A common example is firms who can?t persuade retailers to sell their products can use telephone or Web sales channels instead.</li>
</ul>
<p>So what kinds of things fulfil these criteria? &#8211; certainly not the simple tangible factors discussed in earlier briefings. RBV focuses instead on more subtle and complex things, especially intangible resources, e.g. reputation or staff morale, capabilities (or competences), knowledge and processes. We will get to those later in the strategy dynamics story, but earlier briefings explained how performance depends directly and unavoidably on resources that do not fulfil those criteria? e.g. customers drive revenue, staff and capacity drive costs. The abstract intangible factors of the RBV are important, of course, but they can only affect performance by influencing the simple, tangible resources at the core of the business system. </p>
<p><strong>DIFFICULTIES IN APPLYING THE RESOURCE-BASED VIEW </strong> </p>
<p>It is hard to disagree that intangibles, capabilities and knowledge are important, but applying these things as RBV suggests is tough. As described in the literature, they are abstract, ambiguous and qualitative, so management debate degenerates into semantic discussions about what the words really mean &#8211; hardly a solid foundation on which to build a strong strategy with confident outcomes. And it?s going to be hard steering strategy and performance into the future if you can?t work out what difference a decision makes to these squishy things. </p>
<p>There are even cases that don&#8217;t seem to need RBV-type resources at all. There is nothing unknown or mysterious about how Southwest, Ryanair or McDonald&#8217;s function. The two airlines pursue a completely transparent strategy, even signalling ahead how they intend to develop further. Just about every detail of McDonald&#8217;s operations is even written down and passed around in its franchise manuals! Many hundreds of executives have had experience in these companies during their long periods of success, and are deeply familiar with their inner workings. Why, then, have such individuals not been able to replicate that success elsewhere? The RBV says this is because of some still more abstract capabilities of the senior management &#8211; strategy dynamics says it&#8217;s because of the power of the system! So the approach differs from RBV in three main ways: </p>
<ul>
<li>First, we don&#8217;t ignore the tangible factors that comprise the heart of any business or organization &#8211; we make them explicit, quantify them and connect them to the organization?s performance outcomes.</li>
<li>Secondly, we go beyond resources that are &#8220;<em>owned or controlled</em>&#8220;. To influence performance, you only need a resource to be somewhat reliable &#8211; &#8220;<em>If it is there today, it is likely to be there tomorrow.</em>&#8221; This means in particular that &#8220;<em>customers</em>&#8221; become part of the business system &#8211; newspapers and TV channels keep customers for many years, and customers&#8217; relationships with sports clubs and banks often last longer than their marriages!</li>
<li>Thirdly, strategy dynamics makes explicit how exactly resources work together &#8211; but more on that in future briefings.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong> </td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span> </p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /> </p>
<p><em><strong>&#8220;Ockham&#8217;s razor&#8221;</strong></em> </p>
<p>&#8220;<em>What on earth is that?!</em>&#8221; you may wonder. It is a rather simple idea, supposedly set out by a 14th-century friar, William of Ockham. </p>
<p>All it says is that, given a number of possible explanations for something, the simplest and most concrete explanation is likely to be the best. At the very least, a simple, concrete idea needs to be disproved before we go looking for abstract and complicated answers. </p>
<p>You might bear William in mind whenever you read articles and books about strategy and business. </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>And here are those references&#8230;</strong> </p>
<p><em>Michael Porter (1980) Competitive Strategy, Free Press, New York is the seminal reference book on how external forces determine performance and how strategy can deal with them, or even exploit them. </em> </p>
<p><em>Jay Barney, J. (2002) Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage, 2nd ed?n, Pearson, Upper Saddle River, NJ gives an eloquent explanation of RBV and its implications for strategic management, together with comprehensive coverage of the supporting literature. </em> </p>
<p><em>Robert Grant (2005) Contemporary Strategy Analysis, 6th ed?n, Blackwell, Oxford, Chapter 5 gives a managerial explanation of how to analyse resources and capabilities in the way RBV suggests. There is also a neat article on the idea ? David Collis and Cynthia Montgomery (1995) Competing on resources: Strategy in the 1990s. Harvard Business Review, Vol 73, No. 4, pages 118?128. </em> </p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-9-links-to-the-resource-based-view-of-strategy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 8: A resource based performance in non-commercial cases</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-8-a-resource-based-performance-in-non-commercial-cases/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-8-a-resource-based-performance-in-non-commercial-cases/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Dec 2010 09:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business management analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[constraints]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[donations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[donors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial means]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future demands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[income raised]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[management performance outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MND]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Motor-neurone disease association]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NGOs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non comercial situations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nongovernmental organizations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[performance analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quality delivery service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quality service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[short-term challenges]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics approach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Supply and demand drivers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[voluntary groups]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1489</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is the 8th in a series of Briefings designed to introduce the Strategy Dynamics approach. Find out how analysing resource based performance works just as well in non-commercial sitautions, such as voluntary groups, public services and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">Does <em><strong>Resource based Performance Analysis</strong> work as well in non-commercial sitautions?</em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">
Previous briefings explained how to understand and anticipate business performance by looking at the quantity of resources needed to drive sales and costs. Exactly equivalent thinking works just as well in non-commercial sitautions, such as voluntary groups, public services and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). </p>
<p><span id="more-1489"></span> </p>
<p>The Motor-Neurone Disease Association <em>(www.mndassociation.org)</em> is a voluntary organization working to deliver the support needed by people living with MND <em>(plwMND)</em>. MND, also known as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis or ALS, is a degenerative affliction of the nervous system, that generally results in death within a few years of diagnosis. Similar support groups exist in other countries, such as the ALS Association (USA), www.alsa.org. There are over 3 000 sufferers in the United Kingdom. In addition to supporting medical research into MND, the association offers a range of services to people affected by MND, including a helpline, 14 care centers, equipment loan service, plus support, advice and information from 21 regional care advisors, and a befriending service from over 300 association visitors. Six regionally based volunteer development coordinators support additional volunteer and fundraising activity through a network of 95 branches. </p>
<p>MNDA’s primary objective is to achieve a high level and quality of support. A similarity with business cases is that “demand” for its support is driven by “customers”, i.e. the number of people living with MND who are registered with the organization. The principal resources that determine how much support MNDA can give are the care advisers and visitors, plus the staff and physical resources associated with the helpline (Figure 1). </p>
<p><em><strong>Figure 1:</strong> Demand and supply drivers in MNDA</em> </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb08_01.gif" alt="" /> </p>
<p>Although MNDA is not concerned with profit, it does have to work within its financial means, so costs must be covered by donations and legacies. Raising these funds requires some spending, even though volunteers raise considerable amounts of cash. The association’s financial surplus or deficit is therefore the difference between income raised and the costs of both raising those funds and providing support to its registered clients. Apart from fundraising expenditure, the association’s costs are largely determined by its staff and physical assets, plus financial grants to research projects. The association visitors are volunteers, so do not drive significant continuing costs, although there is a cost for training them. </p>
<p>MNDA’s income from donations is driven by the number of donors, most of whom are regular givers and therefore constitute another resource. Fundraisers – a further resource – also bring in income from the general public, and encourage giving from regular donors. Both sources of donations are boosted by money spent on promoting the association’s aims. </p>
<p>Just as the previous briefing explained for the case of airline Ryanair, the resource-based representation of the association’s operations can be used to lay out what needs to happen to bring about improvements. A number of challenges facing the association could change its future substantially, and thus alter the time path of both its resources and performance outcomes. </p>
<p>First, it is estimated that only half of the people registered with MNDA actually use its services. If the inactive cases were to become active cases quickly, the help- line could be overloaded, leading to long delays for callers’ needs to be resolved. If that bottleneck were removed, demands on the care assistants and visitors would escalate, and their ability to deliver quality care would be compromised. It takes time, however, to find and train these carers, and a further lead time as new staff learn processes, e.g. liaising with health service providers. All this requires a faster rate of fundraising, so more volunteers would be needed, and either the number of donors and/or their donation rate must increase. This would be challenging, since MND is something of an <em>“orphan”</em> affliction, and does not receive the public attention of high-profile diseases such as cancer. </p>
<p>Secondly, the association is facing a likely rapid increase in demand, since the number of people with MND is rising as life expectancy and medical treatments of other ailments improve. This, plus the untapped population of people served by MNDA, indicates that rapid growth is needed in all the organization’s supply-side resources. </p>
<p>Using the strategy dynamics approach allowed MNDA not only to identify where constraints were holding back its ability to deliver the quantity and quality of its service, but – crucially – what had to happen, by how much, and when in order to both deal with the short-term challenges and get the organization fit to cope with future demands. </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p>Public service, voluntary and other non-profit organizations raise some interesting challenges not often found in commercial cases. First, while businesses generally have some financial objective, such as sustained growth in cash flows, such a single dominant aim is not always clear in these other situations. MNDA, for example, wants both to increase its coverage of people who need its help, and improve the quality of that support. It also wants to back research that would potentially eliminate the disease – effectively putting itself out of business [<em>though that is not an immediately likely prospect</em>]. </p>
<p>Non-commercial cases can also feature multiple types of stakeholder, often with different aims and roles that they play in the overall situation. Reducing the number of homeless people in a city, for example, involves the social services, voluntary housing groups, organizations helping reduce drug dependence, and police, as well as the many organizations who previously touched on the lives of people who risk going on to become homeless, such as parents and children’s care homes. </p>
<p>In all such cases, the strategy dynamics approach offers a single [<em>if extensive!</em>] picture of how the whole system fits together, enabling everyone involved to see their own role in that picture and to place their own aims in the context of what others are trying to do. </p>
<p><em>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 2 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</strong><em>, p82 to 85</em></p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-8-a-resource-based-performance-in-non-commercial-cases/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Briefings 3: Three key questions for strategy design</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-3-three-key-questions-for-strategy-design/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-3-three-key-questions-for-strategy-design/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Oct 2010 10:11:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamic business practice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dynamic organisations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[enhance business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[historical perormance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mckinsey Quarterly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profit growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[profitability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[return on invested capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sustainability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time path]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[what]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[who]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[why]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1248</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Join me, Kim Warren, as I introduce and explain ideas behind Strategy Dynamics. This is the third in a series of fortnightly blogs designed to give you an easy introduction to the approach. 
There are three distinct, but related questions lying behind the issue of how businesses and other organizations perform through time... What are they? Read on to find out more...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<table style="background-color: white; margin: 5px auto; width: 670px; border-collapse: separate; border-color: #ffffff;" cellspacing="10" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" width="670">
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;">This is the <strong><em>third </em> </strong>post in the fortnightly series of <strong><em>Strategy Dynamics Briefings</em>.</strong></span> </p>
<address></address>
<address><span style="color: #888888;"><span id="more-1248"></span></span></address>
</div>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"><strong>There are three distinct, but related questions lying behind the issue of how businesses and other organizations perform through time&#8230; What are they?<br />
</strong></p>
<p><em>(If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on www.strategydynamics.com and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;MyAccount&#8221;)</em></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="380" valign="top"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"> </p>
<div>In my last post I explained that the time path of future performance is central to the concerns of investors in commercial firms.</div>
<p>The three distinct questions lying behind the issue of how businesses and other organizations perform through time are:</p>
<ul>
<li>Why has our historical performance followed the time path that it has?</li>
<li>Where will the path of future performance take us if we carry on as we are?</li>
<li>How can we improve that future performance?</li>
</ul>
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"><img style="margin: 0px;" title="The core question" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/003_01.gif" alt="The core question" height="161" align="right" />The first question may not be relevant in every case — for example a new venture startup has no history. However, in most cases, history is highly relevant to the likely trajectory of future performance. To illustrate the importance of these three questions look at the example of Amazon.com, mentioned last time. This story is dealt with in more detail in the book.<br />
</span></div>
<div>
<p>Amazon.com is an outstanding growth story, as the company expanded from online books sales to an increasingly wide range of other high-value/small-size consumer goods. Since its founding in 1994, the company has promised and delivered growth in its business although it took until 2002 to translate increasing sales volume and revenue into profitability.</p>
<div>
<p>So how do our three questions apply to Amazon.com?</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><em><strong>Why has our historical performance followed the time-path that it has?</strong></em></p>
<div>
<p>Sales have grown strongly as consumer uptake of online purchasing has spread and as Amazon.com has extended its product range and entered new geographic markets. Earnings have bounced back from heavy losses into positive profitability, as early expenditure generated the sales growth and gross profits to more than cover the continuing costs of serving customers’ demand.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="SMD Fig 1.6: Hypothetical alternative history of sales and profits for Amazon.com" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/003_02.gif" alt="SMD Fig 1.6: Hypothetical alternative history of sales and profits for Amazon.com" width="400" height="153" align="bottom" /></p>
<p>However, the company’s development could feasibly have followed a different path, even if it ended up at the same point in 2005. Figure 1.6 in SMD, shown above, compares the company’s actual record with an alternative, fictional history. In this other world, the answers to our first question would be quite different. The company might have grown its revenues still more strongly between 1999 and 2002 than it actually did, due to an even faster penetration of online shopping by consumers or extension of its product range and services. From 2002 to 2005, sales growth could have slowed and reversed, perhaps due to saturation of the potential market, the emergence of strong competitors, or a slowdown in the company’s expansion of its offerings. The alternative income line is more worrying still, and explanations might include reduced margins due to competitive activity, poor cost control, or deliberate increases in spending in an effort to restart growth.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><strong>Where will the path of future performance take us if we carry on as we are?</strong></p>
<div>
<p>This second question shows the importance of answering the first. The two alternative histories must imply very different prospects for the future, even though the 2005 endpoint is identical. If we extend the time horizon beyond 2005, a plausible future for Amazon.com is that sales continue to grow for much the same reasons they have in the past—more consumer use of online shopping and extended coverage by the company of product and geographic markets. As a result, profits continue to grow.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>But the answer to &#8220;where might we be heading?&#8221; would likely be very different, had the alternative history occurred. Now we are worried that the slowdown in sales could become a serious downturn, especially if the recent history had reflected progress by powerful rivals. If this were to come about, the profit forecast could be very disappointing, with the company slipping into losses as it struggles to contain costs that it has built up to support a growing sales rate.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><strong>How can we improve that future performance? </strong></p>
<div>
<p>Amazon.com’s actual history to 2005 offers encouraging prospects for sales and profit growth thereafter, so in reaality. answers to this third question focus on pushing growth just a little faster, while not risking damage to the business system that supported its performance to date. Perhaps further product and service development would drive additional growth, and this could plausibly lead to still higher profits.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The answers to this third question would have appeared very different if the company had reached 2005 by the alternative path. Instead of asking how the firm might safely push for even faster growth, it would instead be worrying about how to stop sales revenue slipping backwards, and then how to restart growth. Such a turn-round would likely be costly, so the time path of recovery might well show an even worse profit performance in the next year or two than the “do nothing” projection.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Your business history will probably be quite different from Amazon&#8217;s, but the questions will be the same. Through the course of the book and these emails I will show more examples, in different cases that I hope will demonstrate that for you.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Remember we welcome your comments at any time.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p> </p>
<p></span></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="290" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"><strong>Briefing Number 3</strong></span></div>
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></span></div>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"></p>
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;"> </span></div>
<div><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;">I love it when the lightbulbs go on!<br />
</span></div>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;">When I am teaching it&#8217;s great to see the reactions when people identify something that makes a real difference for them. In my executive classes in particular there have been insights related to areas that, from the outside, you would have thought would have been obvious &#8211; but the sad reality is that people are so often chasing a target that they often don&#8217;t manage to look at the overall picture.</p>
<p>I recall one person who ran a mid-sized security firm &#8211; the kind that provides guards for buildings  of different kinds. He kept driving his head of sales to win new clients, but business was still not growing. When we looked at his numbers, it turned out that he had about 100 client, and each year added 100 new ones, but lost the same number. [Not many cases are quite so extreme!]</p>
<p>How had he got in this awful situation? Well a few quarters ago, HQ were pressing for more profit, so he had to cut back on the staff  who did the actual security work for clients. Service quality fell, so next quarter some of his clients did not renew their contracts. Sales and profits fell, so HQ said &#8216;More profit please&#8217;. [Only not so politely!]</p>
<p>In order to sustain profit growth he set bigger sales targets &#8211; which his head of sales managed to hit. Taking on new clients meant more work, and with no more staff, service quality fell again, so next quarter still more clients cancelled their contracts. So sales and profits fell &#8230; so HQ shouted again &#8230; and so it went on, with ever-growing churn amongst his customers.</p>
<p>Getting out of the mess was tricky. Clearly, chasing still more new business was not working &#8211; apart from anything else, he was fast working through all the potential customers in his region! The solution was a significant, but selective cutting of still more clients. Mad eh! .. our business is in a mess, losing customers, so you tell me I should deliberately throw away some of those I&#8217;ve got? Yes &#8211; but the selection process isolated a significant number who were unprofitable, because they had demanded uneconomic prices or service levels that were too costly. Serving a smaller number of customers, even with the same number of staff actually <em>raised</em> profits <em>and </em>improved service. [We will see more about how this can happen in a later briefing - but that is some way off yet].</p>
<p>&#8230; from where he could start building business again, but with a little more care.</p>
<p></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /></p>
<p> </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: #000066; font-size: small;">Read more about the book<br />
<a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></span></p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-3-three-key-questions-for-strategy-design/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Open up to investors</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/open-up-to-investors/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/open-up-to-investors/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2009 11:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business Strategy Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment decisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investor relations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Management Discussion and Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mckinsey Quarterly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MD&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[starbucks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=467</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[McKinsey quarterly urges executives to embrace transparency if they want to help investors make investment decisions &#8211; presumably to invest in their firms. There&#8217;s a problem though &#8230; This is a great principle, since investors are of course a critical constituency &#8211; along with customers and staff &#8211; whose loyalty is valuable. And as for <a href='http://kimwarren.com/strategy/open-up-to-investors/'>[...]</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>McKinsey quarterly urges executives to <a href="http://e.mckinseyquarterly.com/W0RT00028D06F301F2E302E320C3C0" target="_blank">embrace transparency</a> if they want to help investors make investment decisions &#8211; presumably to invest in their firms. There&#8217;s a problem though &#8230;<span id="more-467"></span></p>
<p>This is a great principle, since investors are of course a critical constituency &#8211; along with customers and staff &#8211; whose loyalty is valuable. And as for any &#8216;product&#8217; loyalty to a firm more likely if investors know and understand that product. Public companies have been obliged for some time to include in their annual returns a ‘discussion’ about their strategy and prospects [called the <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mdanalysis.asp" target="_blank">Management Discussion and Analysis</a> in the U.S.], so with all this required transparency, how come investors get so misled by simple strategic issues [like the Starbucks’ pushy pricing and over-expansion I've posted on before, or the many, many banks who stupidly over-sold high-risk loans]?</p>
<p>The headline answer is that we <em>still</em> &#8211; after half a century of trying &#8211; don&#8217;t know how to work out the link from strategy to performance, and the academics and consultants are fully aware of this problem. [As you probably know, I think there's a way to do this, even if it's not yet widely known or practised]. Just one part of the problem, for example, is that we know intangible items like staff skills and market reputation &#8216;matter&#8217;, but don&#8217;t know how to build these into our analysis &#8211; see <a href="http://www.kimwarren.com/files/InvisibleInkFinal.pdf" target="_blank">Invisible Ink</a> previously published in <a href="http://www.london.edu/bsr.html" target="_blank">Business Strategy Review</a>, outlining briefly how to make the link from intangible factors to performance &#8211; more detail in chapters 9 and 10 of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Strategic-Management-Dynamics-Kim-Warren/dp/0470060670/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1234004466&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank">Strategic Management Dynamics</a> [<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Strategic-Management-Dynamics-Kim-Warren/dp/0470060670/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1234004635&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank">UK link</a>].</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/open-up-to-investors/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

