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		<title>Briefings 13: Doing it right with accumulating resources</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:02:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1715</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Briefings 11-14 talk about ‘accumulating resources’. At one level, this concept may seem rather simple and obvious – ‘So what?’ you may ask yourself. Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering. 

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<td colspan="2" width="670">There is one last thing to do before going on to the implications and uses of resource-accumulation.</td>
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<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;"><em>Sorry</em> – but it’s just got to be done right! If you get this wrong, everything else you try to do with strategy dynamics will be messed up.</p>
<p><span id="more-1715"></span><br />
<strong>Defining and measuring resources and their flows</strong></p>
<p>We were careful in earlier briefings to make sure the causal connections were arithmetically accurate, for example, that quantity sold per month was equal to customers multiplied by quantity per customer per month. It is just as important to define the units of resources and flows accurately. This is simple, though:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Whatever the units by which a resource is measured, the inflows and outflows are always measured in the same units per time period.</strong></p>
<p>There is <em>never</em> any exception to this rule. The table below lists the major types of resource, the units by which they are measured, typical inflows and outflows for each, and the units for measuring those flows. The only judgment to be made about the correct units for resource flow rates concerns the choice of time period – should it be <em>people per week, per month</em>, or <em>per year</em>? I previously explained that time periods should be short enough for change during any period to be relatively small, compared with the overall time-scale of the situation you are looking at. If, for example, you are looking at how profits have been changing from quarter to quarter, then customer gains and losses can be measured in <em>customers per quarter</em>. If you are in a faster moving business and want to understand why sales rates change substantially from week to week, then you need information on weekly sales, and your measure of customer flows should be <em>customers won per week and customers lost per week</em>. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" width="400" height="200"alt="Table: measuring in- and out-flows for various resources" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_01.gif"></p>
<p>The last item in the table shows a small complication that comes up in some cases – when a resource itself includes time. Production capacity for, say, a cement or steel producer is measured in “<em>tons/day.</em>” If we change capacity by adding new equipment or closing a plant, the result is an inflow or outflow of a certain number of “<em>tons/day this year.</em>” This is a one-off inflow, but continuous changes in flow rates may also occur. The production rate for an oil field is measured in “<em>barrels per day</em>”, but as a field is drained, its production rate typically falls. This decline would therefore be measured in “<em>barrels per day, per year</em>.”</p>
<p><strong>Depicting resources, flows and the factors that drive them</strong></p>
<p>To continue in our quest for an accurate causal explanation of performance, we must maintain the discipline of depicting correctly “<em>what causes what</em>,” just as we did with the causal connections in earlier briefings. Since the current quantity of a resource is “<em>caused by</em>” whatever we had at the start of a period, plus what was added, minus what was lost, it <em>cannot</em> be caused by anything else. The first figure below must therefore be wrong—the marketing spend of $5 000 per month cannot explain the number of 1 015 customers at the end of the month. It is missing all three of the numbers needed to work out that quantity (<em>the number at the start of the month, and the numbers gained and lost</em>), and the causal link from <em>marketing spend</em> to <em>customers</em> is meaningless.</p>
<p>The second figure shows the correct causal structure. The “<em>stock and flow</em>” structure includes all the values needed to explain the end-of-month number of customers. It also shows the causal link that “<em>marketing spend of $5 000 per month has won 20 customers during the month.</em>”</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: a frequent error - marketing creates more customers" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_02.gif"></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: correction,  marketing drives customers won per month" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_03.gif"></p>
<p>(<em>If you ever look at simulation models of how an organization is performing over time, you might see links like the ‘illegal’ one in the first figure. Don’t be misled, though, the simulation needs to know the start-value for the resource, and those links only set that value (1000 customers in this case). All values for later time periods are calculated from the in- and outflows.</em>)</p>
<p><strong>It’s just hard!</strong></p>
<p>It’s pretty obvious that if we have 100 customers now and win five during this month, then we will have 105 next month. Obvious, yes, but it turns out the human mind simply cannot take this simple notion and work out how resource levels will change over time if the flow-rate varies. Believe it or not, <em>most</em> Masters students at top-level technical universities cannot look at a picture like this with the time-chart for ‘total customers missing and sketch in accurately what will happen to that stock. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: it's difficult to see how levels behave" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb13_04.gif"></p>
<p>They aren’t dumb – it just seems that the ability to do this had no evolutionary value. If our cave-dwelling ancestors had no food, they went out and got some – they didn’t bother estimating the rate of depletion and how many days they could lounge around before getting hungry. Later, when humanity could store food, this became a useful skill (<em>indeed this need triggered the first use of ‘accounting’ – for stocks of grain!</em>)</p>
<p>This estimation becomes particularly difficult when, as is common, more than one resource flow is involved. Customers may be lost as well as won, so this overall win rate of five customers per month could easily be the net result of winning 10 and losing 5 each month, winning 20 and losing 15, or even winning 100 and losing 95. These alternative situations are not equivalent! A company experiencing the last of these cases will have some serious problems:</p>
<ul>
<li>it requires effort and cash to win customers, so a high rate of customer churn will be costly</li>
<li>the large number of customers being lost will likely damage the company’s reputation</li>
<li>if there is a finite number of potential customers, the company risks running out of customers</li>
</ul>
<p>So – it is worth reemphasizing an important implication of this structure:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>It is vital to know, separately, resource in-flows and out-flows.</strong></p>
<p>Sorry if you feel I’ve beaten you up rather a lot in this briefing. Believe me – if you take the time to really work at these principles until you have them nailed, you will thank me for it later! </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>Does this matter?</strong></p>
<p>It does if the confusion makes us mistake the consequences of our decisions. </p>
<ul>
<li>If you are worried about the level of debt on your credit card, for example, and you do not appreciate the distinction between levels and rates, you might imagine that cutting your “<em>level</em>” of spending would reduce your debt. But up to a certain point it won’t—reducing the rate of spending would merely slow the rate at which your debt is rising!</li>
<li>A company concerned with falling sales revenue might mistakenly think that reducing the “<em>level</em>” of customer churn would lead to increasing sales. But customer churn is the rate of customer losses (<em>units being customers per month</em>), and sales revenue will continue falling until that rate is less than the rate of customer acquisition.</li>
<li>The confusion also matters on bigger issues. Governments are to varying degrees committed to reducing the “<em>level</em>” of greenhouse gas emissions, in the belief that this will “<em>tackle</em>” global warming. It won’t. Greenhouse gas emissions are a rate (<em>units are billions of tons per year</em>) that is adding to the level of those gases in the atmosphere. As long as the emission rate exceeds the absorption rate of the planet’s biosphere, any reduction in emissions is merely slowing the rate at which that level is rising. If you are filling a bathtub with a fire hose, turning the hose down by a few percent is not going to stop your house from flooding!
</li>
</ul>
<p>This has important implications for how management decides on objectives. If you fear that your credit card debt is too high, the only appropriate objective is for your spending rate to be cut to less than your repayments, minus interest charges. The company with falling revenue must aim for the rate of customer churn to be less than its rate of customer acquisition. And if governments believe high levels of greenhouse gases to be dangerous, then the only appropriate aim is for the rate of emissions to fall below the planet’s absorption rate, which is a very large cut indeed. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 3 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</em></strong>, pages 127-130 </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>Briefings 12: Accumulating resources over time</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-12-accumulating-resources-over-time/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Feb 2011 10:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1689</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Briefings 11-14 talk about ‘accumulating resources’. At one level, this concept may seem rather simple and obvious – ‘So what?’ you may ask yourself. Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering. 

]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670">The previous briefing explained that <strong>accumulating resources</strong> are <strong>important</strong>. </td>
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<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">So now we need to understand how to work out the result when it happens.</p>
<p><span id="more-1689"></span><br />
The following figure shows how to picture this idea. The box icon in the middle is the ‘<em>tank</em>’ containing the cash in your bank account, and the oval icons are the pumps, pumping cash in and out at some rate. If the inflow and outflow rates differ, as they do here, you know exactly how fast the resource is changing, so if these numbers continue through time, you will have $1050 at the end of next month, $1100 at the end of the month after, and so on. It is also easy to work out what will happen if, say, your rent goes up from $200 to $300/month. </p>
<p>This math is known as “<em>integration</em>” but don’t worry if this sounds scary – if this illustration makes sense to you, it seems you already know how to “<em>integrate</em>” resources over time, even if you didn’t realize it. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: bank account" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_01.gif"></p>
<p>This figure only looks at the relationship between a resource and its flow rates for a single period, but we made a big deal in previous briefings about the need to understand how performance varies continuously over time … so we also need to understand what happens to resource levels over time … so we need to understand the relationship between resources and their flow rates from period to period. </p>
<p>To clarify this point, the next figure shows sales for some product, driven by customers who buy at a steady rate of seven units per month. The business starts with 100 customers, and wins five new customers per month, ending the year with 160 customers. Sales start the year at the rate of 700 units per month, and end the year at 1120 units per month (<em>160 customers * 7 units per customer per month</em>). </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: customers create sales" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_02.gif"></p>
<p>What happens when a customer flow rate is not constant but itself is changing over time. In the final figure, the business is winning 20 customers per month, and initially losing only 12/month. But as each month passes, this loss rate increases, rising in successive months to 14, 16, 18, and so on, until by the end of month 12, customers are leaving at the rate of 36 per month.</p>
<p>We have a straight-line trend on customer losses, and a constant win rate, but the stock of customers follows a curving path through time, peaking at 120 during month five (<em>when 20 customers are won and another 20 are lost</em>), then decreasing ever more rapidly until the year ends with only 64 customers in place. </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" alt="Diagram: changing numbers of customers affect sales" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_03.gif"></p>
<p>Although this may seem an unfamiliar way of looking at business performance, it simply re-presents what could equally be shown in a spreadsheet. The table at the foot of this briefing shows the causal logic and calculation sequence:</p>
<ul>
<li>the resources available at the start of each month (<em>customers</em>) determine the performance rate (<em>total sales</em>)</li>
<li>resources added and lost during the month (<em>new customers and customers lost</em>) determine the resource that at the start of next month</li>
</ul>
<p>The spreadsheet adds an extra line for average sales last month, to get a more accurate explanation for the performance over each period.</p>
<p>Note that the resource flow rates here—new customers and customers lost per month – tell us the trajectory on which the business is heading at the start of each period. The customer base starts heading upwards by a net +8 per month. By month 4, customer losses match the win rate, so there is no net change in customers. By month 12, customer losses are way faster than the win rate, so into the next month (month 13), the net change will be –16/month.</p>
<p>This structure has a critical implication:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">It is vital to know, separately, resource inflows and outflows.<br />
</strong></p>
<p>Winning 20 customers and losing 12 is not the same as winning 100 and losing 92! </p>
<p>Where in your business would understanding the inflows and outflows of a key reource make a difference to management?</p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" width="440" height="200" alt="Table: illustrative customer in- and out-flows" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb12_04.gif"></p>
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<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>More than a ‘<em>theory</em>’!</strong></p>
<p>The simple mechanism captured in these figures portray a deeply fundamental principle – the amount of any resource right now is the sum of everything ever added, minus everything ever lost. This is not a matter of opinion, a result of surveys, research or statistical analysis. It is more even than a “<em>theory</em>”—it just IS the way the world works, and is mathematically unavoidable. There is no other explanation for the amount of cash in your account besides the historical sum of what was paid in and out.</p>
<p><strong>Market pain?</strong></p>
<p>Well – “this is all pretty obvious”, you might say – and indeed it is, but it is only obvious, and helpful, if you bother to ask about it! … and serious folk in serious organizations fail to do so amazingly often. Take the case of a branded pain-relief product in the US market. Market growth was minimal, and sales were changing only at a very slow rate indeed. However, far from the stability that these low rates implied, buyers of pain-relief products were actually churning quite quickly, with nearly 13% switching their preferred product each year. Consequently, although net change in consumer numbers and sales was very small, there was great scope for improving the situation. Rather than trying still harder to capture new customer, attention shifted to retaining specific consumers who were leaving most rapidly. (<em>Customers leaving buy more than new customers, so sales were actually falling in spite of increasing customer numbers</em>).</p>
<p>Further work showed that customer churn could readily be reduced by two percentage points a year, comparable to the best performing competitor, an improvement worth over $1 million per year in extra sales, and a significant increase in market share. Better still, this could be achieved with a lower marketing spend than previously, since there was less competitive marketing activity directed at the consumer group who were leaving. </p>
<p>Sure, this was obvious – but the fact is that no-one had asked this question about customer win- and loss-rates before. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 3 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</em></strong>, pages 128-133 </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>Briefings 11: Resource accumulation</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-11-resource-accumulation/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jan 2011 09:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1647</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The next few briefings 11-14 are going to talk a lot about ‘accumulating resources’. At one level, this concept may seem rather simple and obvious – ‘So what?’ you may ask yourself. Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering. 

]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670">At one level, <em><strong>Resource Accumulation</strong></em> may seem rather simple and obvious.<br />
‘<em>So what?</em>’ you may ask yourself.<br />
Well, it’s monumentally, massively important, and while it may be obvious in itself, its consequences are truly staggering.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">The next few briefings are going to talk a lot about ‘<em><strong>accumulating resources</em></strong>’.</p>
<p><span id="more-1647"></span></p>
<p>Just to recap, in earlier briefings I explained the importance of focusing on how organizational performance changes over time, and also how to trace the causal logic that explains this performance, until that chain reaches the underlying resources determining demand and capacity, revenue and costs – customers, capacity, staff, product range and cash.So the next logical question is “<strong>What determines the quantity of customers and staff (<em>and every other resource</em>) at any time?</strong>” This is where the unique characteristic of resources and other “<strong><em>asset-stocks</em></strong>” comes into play. So far all the causal relationships discussed are of the form:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>X depends in some way on Y, Z, W etc.</strong>,<br />
e.g. ‘<em>Profit = revenue minus costs.</em>’,<br />
or ‘<em>I can estimate the fraction of customers who can get my product if I know how many stores stock it.</em>’</p>
<p>However, the verbal explanation for resources is:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>The quantity of resource X today is the total amount of X that has ever been added, minus the quantity that has ever been lost.</strong></p>
<p>Let’s be clear what this implies: </p>
<ul>
<li>The number of customers you have today is precisely the sum of every customer ever won, minus every customer that left, since the day your business started. It is the customer gains and losses that are explained by price, products, marketing and sales effort, not the quantity of customers itself. </li>
<li>The number of staff you have today is precisely the sum of every person you ever hired, minus every person who ever left or was fired. It is gains and losses of staff that are explained by salaries, career prospects, and so on. </li>
<li>The number of products offered today is the sum of all the products ever launched, minus every product discontinued. </li>
<li>The amount of cash you have today is the sum of all the cash that ever came into the business, minus all cash ever spent.</li>
</ul>
<p>… but we generally don’t want, or need, to go right back to the beginning! So to understand what’s happening right now, we can start with how much resource we had at the start of last period (<em>at the start of last month we had 50 staff</em>). Then, just count what was added or lost during that period (<em>we hired 5 staff, but 7 left</em>), to know precisely how much resource there is at the end of the period (<em>48 staff</em>). That will then be how much there is to start the <em><strong>next</em></strong> period. </p>
<p>To know accurately how the quantity of a resource changes over a longer period, this calculation needs to be repeated sufficiently often. If we start the year with 100 customers, and add five every month, we will end the year with 160 customers, but if we add five in January, three in February, seven in March and lose two in April, we will need to know every month’s change in order to calculate the year-end number … and each month’s number may also be important in itself, of course. Anyone with a knowledge of accounts will quickly realize that the distinction between asset stock and other items is the same as that between balance sheet (<em>reported at a point in time</em>) and profit and loss items (<em>totaled over a defined period</em>) – it’s just that here we are extending the range of things we want to record. </p>
<p>So, since performance depends directly on the resources available at any time, the challenge for managers is how to build and maintain the quantity of each resource. To help understand this, think of a resource as behaving like water in a bathtub or tank. The inflow rate is how quickly water is flowing in through the faucet [<em>‘<strong>tap</strong>’ in UK English</em>] and the outflow rate measures how quickly water is running away through the drain hole. In just the same way, resources are built by the flow of new resource into the stock and depleted through losses &#8211; resources “<em><strong>flowing</strong></em>” out of the tank. This idea is captured for a staff resource in figure below. The “<em><strong>tank</em></strong>” in the middle holds the number of staff we have right now. To the left is the outside world, where there are many people, some of whom might become future staff. The big “<em><strong>pipe</em></strong>” flowing into the tank has a pump on it (<em>the oval symbol</em>) that drives how fast that stock of staff is being added. On the right, another pump on a pipe flowing out of the stock determines how fast we are losing staff, to the outside world.</p>
<p><em>Building, and losing, the staff resource.</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb11_01.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p>This picture begins to show why the firm’s history is so important. The level of resource we have today is on a trajectory through time, reflecting how well we have been building it (<em>and holding on to it!</em>) in the past. This not only explains why the business is in its present state, but also its trajectory into the immediate future. </p>
<p>Returning to the idea that theory is an explanation of “what causes what, and how,” this is then the core theory that lies at the heart of how business and other organizations perform – that rates of gain and loss over time for any resource explains the quantity of that resource at every moment, and they do so by accumulating.</p>
<p>This second principle can be added to our emerging theory of performance, which will, when complete, becomes useful and powerful:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>performance depends on resources</strong>, and</li>
<li><strong>Resources accumulate and deplete</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>To complete the picture, we will also need to explain what causes those rates of gain and loss for each resource – a question we will look at in later briefings. </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
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<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>Wings, aerofoils and theory.</strong></p>
<p>It is important to appreciate just how fundamental asset-stocks are to understanding and directing organizations’ performance. To take an analogy, feathers and flapping wings may be common among things that fly, but don’t ‘<em>explain</em>’ flight. That understanding made little progress until the properties of aerofoils were discovered. makes air passing over a wing move faster than air passing underneath, so the air on top is less dense. The wing is therefore subject to more pressure from below than from above, and experiences lift upwards. As far as winged flying things are concerned, it is the aerofoil (<em>not feathers or flapping wings</em>) that is the single vital component without which it is impossible to explain performance, whether of a plane, bird, insect or tree seed. It is also impossible to anticipate the behavior of any new wing or change of design without understanding how that component functions.</p>
<p>The accumulating asset-stock is as fundamental to the performance of organizations over time as the aerofoil is to the behavior of winged objects. </p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 3 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</em></strong>, pages 121-124 </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>Briefings 10: Defining, Specifying and Measuring Tangible Resources</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-10-defining-specifying-and-measuring-tangible-resources/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jan 2011 09:00:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[briefings]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1584</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A useful, but not exhaustive, checklist of tangible resources to start from is as follows: customers, products, production capacity, staff and cash. Since organizations exist to “supply” some form of “demand,” Kim''s 10th Briefing looks at demand-side resources first. 

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<td colspan="2" width="670">What would be a useful <em><strong>checklist</strong></em> of <em><strong>tangible resources</strong></em>?</p>
<p>&#8230; <strong>customers, products, production capacity, staff and cash</strong>.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">Since organizations exist to “<em><strong>supply</strong></em>” some form of “<em><strong>demand</strong></em>,” let’s look at demand-side resources first&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-1584"></span></p>
<p>The most obvious resource on the demand side of the relationship is “<em><strong>customers</strong></em>” – or clients, users or other terms, depending on the industry. Two important issues to consider are, first, that customers may come in multiple varieties (<em>think consumer/business for telecoms, or leisure/business customers for hotels</em>). Secondly, a company may supply one set of customers, who then have further customers of their own, and these may in turn have further customers. Whilst only the first group is strictly the company’s set of “<em><strong>customers</strong></em>” the other parties downstream in the chain are critical to driving the company’s sales. For a consumer brand such as Coca-Cola or Proctor &amp; Gamble, the direct customers are retailers, such as Wal-Mart or Tesco, who then sell to consumers. So a full explanation of business performance requires information on final customers as well as about the direct customers or intermediaries involved.</p>
<p><em>Demand-side architecture for a consumer brand company.</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb10_01.gif" alt="" width="435" height="252" /></p>
<p>Other special cases include:</p>
<ul>
<li>not-for-profit organizations, where “demand” still comes from individuals or groups served by the organization</li>
<li>organizations that must serve the needs of two distinct groups, e.g. newspapers serve readers and advertisers, or eBay who must satisfy both buyers and sellers</li>
<li>commodity markets, such as oil or agricultural products – where there is sometimes no identifiable customer</li>
</ul>
<p>For “<em><strong>durable goods</strong></em>”, the customer resource is best described as an “<em><strong>installed base</strong></em>” – sales come from the rate at which new customers arrive, not from continuing existence of these customers. [<em>Strictly, the installed base describes the goods themselves, rather than the owners</em>]. Depending on the product it may be easy or difficult to keep in touch with the people who own the product – your sofa, for example does not need an annual service whilst you would be careless not to send your car to be checked over! In some cases, the installed base continues to generate a separate flow of sales, either from service (<em>e.g. cars, elevators or aircraft engines</em>) or from “<em><strong>consumables</strong></em>” (<em>e.g. ink for printers or games for games consoles</em>). The bottom line, though, is that in some way or other, sales nearly always depend directly on customer numbers.</p>
<p><strong>SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES </strong></p>
<p>All organizations need some form of <strong>production or service capacity</strong> – manufacturing capacity, shelf space in stores, airlines’ aircraft and seats. In some cases, capacity consists of people who provide service capacity, and this is a common feature of many public services and voluntary organizations. Organizations also need staff to undertake the various functions that have to be fulfilled (<em>e.g. marketing, sales, product development, support, accounts and administration to name just a few</em>). For a full analysis it is therefore helpful when thinking about staff to check that everyone associated with the organization’s “<em><strong>capacity</strong></em>” resource has been covered.</p>
<p>Next, all organizations have some <strong>range of products or services</strong> that they provide. If the range is too limited, they may miss out on substantial groups of consumers: too wide, and the sales they achieve may be fragmented into uneconomically small amounts. Product range can take a variety of forms – for airlines, it is the routes served, and for a TV or radio channel, it is the range of programs broadcast. Whatever its form, though, the range of products has implications for the numbers and skills of people needed to deliver them.</p>
<p>Although not directly associated with “<em><strong>supply</strong></em>” of products and services to customers, <strong>cash is an important resource</strong> that enables the other supply-side resources to be developed. It is important to note that cash has a negative counterpart – debt – that drives the cost of interest payments. However it is not always essential to include cash in the strategic analysis unless</p>
<ul>
<li>the organization is in financial difficulties</li>
<li>the strategy requires costly initiatives</li>
<li>the organization concerned is a new venture, which has access to only a limited pool of potential cash to fund its development</li>
</ul>
<p>It might seem puzzling that “<em><strong>suppliers</strong></em>” themselves are not listed as a universally important factor. Supply can be a constraint in certain circumstances, usually where the physical source itself is limited. Some organizations – Toyota is a good example – have also made a powerful platform for their own performance by developing close relationships with supplier. In either case, it would be appropriate to include them in the analysis.</p>
<p><strong>SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES </strong></p>
<p>This table summarizes how the most common categories of tangible resources might appear for certain businesses. The list includes two items—intermediaries and cash—that may need to be added in a significant number of cases.</p>
<table style="font-size: x-small; width: 5px; valign: top;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="6"><strong>THE MOST COMMON TANGIBLE RESOURCES IN STRATEGY ANALYSIS</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Tangible resource</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Coffee shop chain</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Law firm<br />
</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Start-up airline</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Consumer brand</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"><strong>Demand-side</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Customers</strong></td>
<td valign="top">Consumers</td>
<td valign="top">Clients</td>
<td valign="top">Customers</td>
<td valign="top">Consumers</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em>Intermediaries</em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em>Retailers</em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"><strong>Supply-side</strong></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Capacity</strong></td>
<td valign="top">Stores</td>
<td valign="top">Professional staff</td>
<td valign="top">Aircraft</td>
<td valign="top"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Staff</strong></td>
<td valign="top">People</td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top">Service staff</td>
<td valign="top">Sales force</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><strong>Product range</strong></td>
<td valign="top">Products</td>
<td valign="top">Legal services</td>
<td valign="top">Routes offered</td>
<td valign="top">Brands offered</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em><strong>Suppliers</strong></em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top">Airports</td>
<td valign="top"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em><strong>Cash</strong></em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
<td valign="top"><em>cash</em></td>
<td valign="top"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="6"><em>(Italic indicates additional resources that may be important in some cases)</em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>This table should provide a useful checklist for most situations.</p>
<p><strong>Doing it right: give resources their proper names</strong></p>
<p>To be useful for explaining performance and developing strategy, each resource will need to be used to calculate other items, so they must be properly defined. The most important guideline for this purpose is to specify a measurement for any resource in its own physical terms – do not use some proxy instead. “<em><strong>Staff</strong></em>” are people, “<em><strong>customers</strong></em>” are people or organizations, a “<em><strong>product range</strong></em>” consists of actual products or services. Using abstract terms makes it hard to quantify resources and to calculate or estimate their impact on other parts of the system.</p>
<p>The occasional exception to this rule concerns “<em><strong>capacity</strong></em>” which can arise from a complex mix of physical items and activities. This may mean that you have to define and measure “<em><strong>capacity</strong></em>” in terms of the potential output, e.g. a chemical plant’s physical capacity consists of its vessels and pipe-work, but it is more useful for strategy purposes to measure it in ‘tons per day’.</p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="112" valign="top">
<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="100" height="160" /></p>
<p><em><strong>SWOT analysis</strong></em></p>
<p>If you have had any kind of general business course you have probably come across <strong>SWOT</strong> analysis—<strong>S</strong>trengths, <strong>W</strong>eaknesses, <strong>O</strong>pportunities and <strong>T</strong>hreats. Whilst considered by many to be an outdated and simplistic approach, most managers still think of <strong>SWOT</strong> first when asked how they would go about assessing their strategy. So how can a resource appraisal clarify to a firm’s <strong>SWOT</strong> analysis?</p>
<p>The <strong>SWOT</strong> framework splits naturally into two halves:</p>
<p><strong>Opportunities and Threats:</strong> features of the external environment, mostly competitors and other external pressures. Two formal methods in particular deal with these issues – analysis of the “<strong>five forces</strong>” of the competitive environment (<em>competitors, customers, new entrants, substitutes, and suppliers</em>) and analysis of “<strong>PEST</strong>” factors (<em>political, economic, social, and technological forces</em>).</p>
<p><strong>Strengths and Weaknesses</strong> on the other hand are features of the firm itself, relative to competitors and success factors in the market, and have a closer connection with a resource-based approach. Strengths and weaknesses can be evaluated in terms of resources and capabilities that the firm has, or needs, for its system to work. These can then be compared to levels or qualities of resources available to actual or potential rivals.</p>
<p>We can therefore add to a <strong>SWOT</strong> analysis by carrying out a quantified, fact-based analysis of resources, including an evaluation of their relative strengths and weaknesses.</p>
<p>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 2 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</strong>,</em> pp 95-110</p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" width="100" height="170" /><br />
&gt; Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
</div>
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		<title>Briefings 9: Links to the &#8216;resource based view&#8217; of strategy.</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-9-links-to-the-resource-based-view-of-strategy/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Dec 2010 09:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[academic concepts]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Have you ever puzzled over academic concepts? ...and thought, "What does this mean? Should I be using this?" Join Kim Warren, as he discusses some important academic "stuff" in his 9th Briefing.]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670">Have you ever puzzled over <em><strong>academic concepts</strong></em>? &#8230;thought, &#8220;<em><strong>What does this mean? Should I be using this?</strong>&#8220;</em> </td>
</tr>
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<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">This briefing discusses some academic <em>stuff</em>, which is important for teachers to understand. It&#8217;s useful for professionals too, because you may come across these concepts, puzzle about what they mean, and wonder if you should be using them. I have put a few key references at the end.<br />
<span id="more-1529"></span> </p>
<p>In very simple terms, the academic study of strategy and performance has shifted its attention in recent decades. From the early 1980s, people focused on how &#8216;industry forces&#8217; [<em>competitors, customers, new-entrants, suppliers and substitute products and services</em>] impacted on the profits firms in an industry could achieve and how strategy could cope with those forces. </p>
<p>By the 1990s, though, it looked like these issues did not explain much about why some firms perform better than others. Research identified that things about the business itself seemed to be more important, e.g. how much they spent on R&amp;D or marketing. [Translation "<em>You can do well in tough markets, and mess up in attractive ones!</em>"] Further investigation suggested firms could sustain strong performance by developing &#8216;<em>strategic</em>&#8216; resources that others could not copy. This idea has crystallized into as the so-called &#8216;<em>resource-based view</em>&#8216; of strategy &#8211; affectionately known as RBV. </p>
<p>Since we have repeatedly talked about the principle that resources drive performance, you might think that this idea and RBV are one and the same thing &#8211; they aren&#8217;t. </p>
<p>An accepted definition of RBV resources is</p>
<p>&#8220;<em>&#8230;all assets, capabilities, competencies, organizational processes, firm attributes, information, knowledge, and so forth that are controlled by a firm and that enable the firm to conceive of and implement strategies designed to improve its efficiency and effectiveness.</em>&#8220; </p>
<p>Management often blames any shortfall in performance on &#8220;<em>inadequate resources</em>&#8220;, so it may seem self-evident that resources are important, but RBV claims that only certain special items matter. Since many resources are easy to get &#8211; cash can be borrowed, production capacity can be bought, staff can be hired &#8211; any firm that gets behind on such things simply copies what its competitors have. [<em>Yes I know, if the academics think it's so easy, they should go try it!</em>] So the RBV asserts that any resource can only give sustained advantage if it is valuable, rare, hard to imitate, and works with other organizational factors &#8211; the so-called <em>&#8220;VRIO criteria.&#8221;</em> </p>
<p>To see if any resource will give you a competitive edge, RBV recommends you ask the following questions: </p>
<ul>
<li><em><strong>Is it durable?</em></strong> A resource that deteriorates or becomes obsolete quickly is not likely to provide sustainable advantage, e.g. production equipment wears out, and staff skills get out of date.</li>
<li><em><strong>Is it mobile or tradeable?</em></strong> Many resources are easily bought or taken from other firms. Equipment suppliers may sell the latest technology to your rivals as well as yourselves, customer lists can be purchased, and staff can be attracted by better salaries.</li>
<li><em><strong>Is it easy to copy?</em></strong> Many resources can be easily copied by rivals, so these too offer little scope for competitive advantage. You might launch a great new product but if it is easily copied the benefit will be short lived.</li>
<li><em><strong>Can the resource be substituted?</em></strong> Even if you cannot buy or copy your competitors? resources, you may still be able to challenge them by using something else. A common example is firms who can?t persuade retailers to sell their products can use telephone or Web sales channels instead.</li>
</ul>
<p>So what kinds of things fulfil these criteria? &#8211; certainly not the simple tangible factors discussed in earlier briefings. RBV focuses instead on more subtle and complex things, especially intangible resources, e.g. reputation or staff morale, capabilities (or competences), knowledge and processes. We will get to those later in the strategy dynamics story, but earlier briefings explained how performance depends directly and unavoidably on resources that do not fulfil those criteria? e.g. customers drive revenue, staff and capacity drive costs. The abstract intangible factors of the RBV are important, of course, but they can only affect performance by influencing the simple, tangible resources at the core of the business system. </p>
<p><strong>DIFFICULTIES IN APPLYING THE RESOURCE-BASED VIEW </strong> </p>
<p>It is hard to disagree that intangibles, capabilities and knowledge are important, but applying these things as RBV suggests is tough. As described in the literature, they are abstract, ambiguous and qualitative, so management debate degenerates into semantic discussions about what the words really mean &#8211; hardly a solid foundation on which to build a strong strategy with confident outcomes. And it?s going to be hard steering strategy and performance into the future if you can?t work out what difference a decision makes to these squishy things. </p>
<p>There are even cases that don&#8217;t seem to need RBV-type resources at all. There is nothing unknown or mysterious about how Southwest, Ryanair or McDonald&#8217;s function. The two airlines pursue a completely transparent strategy, even signalling ahead how they intend to develop further. Just about every detail of McDonald&#8217;s operations is even written down and passed around in its franchise manuals! Many hundreds of executives have had experience in these companies during their long periods of success, and are deeply familiar with their inner workings. Why, then, have such individuals not been able to replicate that success elsewhere? The RBV says this is because of some still more abstract capabilities of the senior management &#8211; strategy dynamics says it&#8217;s because of the power of the system! So the approach differs from RBV in three main ways: </p>
<ul>
<li>First, we don&#8217;t ignore the tangible factors that comprise the heart of any business or organization &#8211; we make them explicit, quantify them and connect them to the organization?s performance outcomes.</li>
<li>Secondly, we go beyond resources that are &#8220;<em>owned or controlled</em>&#8220;. To influence performance, you only need a resource to be somewhat reliable &#8211; &#8220;<em>If it is there today, it is likely to be there tomorrow.</em>&#8221; This means in particular that &#8220;<em>customers</em>&#8221; become part of the business system &#8211; newspapers and TV channels keep customers for many years, and customers&#8217; relationships with sports clubs and banks often last longer than their marriages!</li>
<li>Thirdly, strategy dynamics makes explicit how exactly resources work together &#8211; but more on that in future briefings.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong> </td>
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<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span> </p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /> </p>
<p><em><strong>&#8220;Ockham&#8217;s razor&#8221;</strong></em> </p>
<p>&#8220;<em>What on earth is that?!</em>&#8221; you may wonder. It is a rather simple idea, supposedly set out by a 14th-century friar, William of Ockham. </p>
<p>All it says is that, given a number of possible explanations for something, the simplest and most concrete explanation is likely to be the best. At the very least, a simple, concrete idea needs to be disproved before we go looking for abstract and complicated answers. </p>
<p>You might bear William in mind whenever you read articles and books about strategy and business. </p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>And here are those references&#8230;</strong> </p>
<p><em>Michael Porter (1980) Competitive Strategy, Free Press, New York is the seminal reference book on how external forces determine performance and how strategy can deal with them, or even exploit them. </em> </p>
<p><em>Jay Barney, J. (2002) Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage, 2nd ed?n, Pearson, Upper Saddle River, NJ gives an eloquent explanation of RBV and its implications for strategic management, together with comprehensive coverage of the supporting literature. </em> </p>
<p><em>Robert Grant (2005) Contemporary Strategy Analysis, 6th ed?n, Blackwell, Oxford, Chapter 5 gives a managerial explanation of how to analyse resources and capabilities in the way RBV suggests. There is also a neat article on the idea ? David Collis and Cynthia Montgomery (1995) Competing on resources: Strategy in the 1990s. Harvard Business Review, Vol 73, No. 4, pages 118?128. </em> </p>
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		<title>Briefings 8: A resource based performance in non-commercial cases</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-8-a-resource-based-performance-in-non-commercial-cases/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-8-a-resource-based-performance-in-non-commercial-cases/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Dec 2010 09:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1489</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is the 8th in a series of Briefings designed to introduce the Strategy Dynamics approach. Find out how analysing resource based performance works just as well in non-commercial sitautions, such as voluntary groups, public services and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670">Does <em><strong>Resource based Performance Analysis</strong> work as well in non-commercial sitautions?</em></p>
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Previous briefings explained how to understand and anticipate business performance by looking at the quantity of resources needed to drive sales and costs. Exactly equivalent thinking works just as well in non-commercial sitautions, such as voluntary groups, public services and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). </p>
<p><span id="more-1489"></span> </p>
<p>The Motor-Neurone Disease Association <em>(www.mndassociation.org)</em> is a voluntary organization working to deliver the support needed by people living with MND <em>(plwMND)</em>. MND, also known as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis or ALS, is a degenerative affliction of the nervous system, that generally results in death within a few years of diagnosis. Similar support groups exist in other countries, such as the ALS Association (USA), www.alsa.org. There are over 3 000 sufferers in the United Kingdom. In addition to supporting medical research into MND, the association offers a range of services to people affected by MND, including a helpline, 14 care centers, equipment loan service, plus support, advice and information from 21 regional care advisors, and a befriending service from over 300 association visitors. Six regionally based volunteer development coordinators support additional volunteer and fundraising activity through a network of 95 branches. </p>
<p>MNDA’s primary objective is to achieve a high level and quality of support. A similarity with business cases is that “demand” for its support is driven by “customers”, i.e. the number of people living with MND who are registered with the organization. The principal resources that determine how much support MNDA can give are the care advisers and visitors, plus the staff and physical resources associated with the helpline (Figure 1). </p>
<p><em><strong>Figure 1:</strong> Demand and supply drivers in MNDA</em> </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb08_01.gif" alt="" /> </p>
<p>Although MNDA is not concerned with profit, it does have to work within its financial means, so costs must be covered by donations and legacies. Raising these funds requires some spending, even though volunteers raise considerable amounts of cash. The association’s financial surplus or deficit is therefore the difference between income raised and the costs of both raising those funds and providing support to its registered clients. Apart from fundraising expenditure, the association’s costs are largely determined by its staff and physical assets, plus financial grants to research projects. The association visitors are volunteers, so do not drive significant continuing costs, although there is a cost for training them. </p>
<p>MNDA’s income from donations is driven by the number of donors, most of whom are regular givers and therefore constitute another resource. Fundraisers – a further resource – also bring in income from the general public, and encourage giving from regular donors. Both sources of donations are boosted by money spent on promoting the association’s aims. </p>
<p>Just as the previous briefing explained for the case of airline Ryanair, the resource-based representation of the association’s operations can be used to lay out what needs to happen to bring about improvements. A number of challenges facing the association could change its future substantially, and thus alter the time path of both its resources and performance outcomes. </p>
<p>First, it is estimated that only half of the people registered with MNDA actually use its services. If the inactive cases were to become active cases quickly, the help- line could be overloaded, leading to long delays for callers’ needs to be resolved. If that bottleneck were removed, demands on the care assistants and visitors would escalate, and their ability to deliver quality care would be compromised. It takes time, however, to find and train these carers, and a further lead time as new staff learn processes, e.g. liaising with health service providers. All this requires a faster rate of fundraising, so more volunteers would be needed, and either the number of donors and/or their donation rate must increase. This would be challenging, since MND is something of an <em>“orphan”</em> affliction, and does not receive the public attention of high-profile diseases such as cancer. </p>
<p>Secondly, the association is facing a likely rapid increase in demand, since the number of people with MND is rising as life expectancy and medical treatments of other ailments improve. This, plus the untapped population of people served by MNDA, indicates that rapid growth is needed in all the organization’s supply-side resources. </p>
<p>Using the strategy dynamics approach allowed MNDA not only to identify where constraints were holding back its ability to deliver the quantity and quality of its service, but – crucially – what had to happen, by how much, and when in order to both deal with the short-term challenges and get the organization fit to cope with future demands. </p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
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<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p>Public service, voluntary and other non-profit organizations raise some interesting challenges not often found in commercial cases. First, while businesses generally have some financial objective, such as sustained growth in cash flows, such a single dominant aim is not always clear in these other situations. MNDA, for example, wants both to increase its coverage of people who need its help, and improve the quality of that support. It also wants to back research that would potentially eliminate the disease – effectively putting itself out of business [<em>though that is not an immediately likely prospect</em>]. </p>
<p>Non-commercial cases can also feature multiple types of stakeholder, often with different aims and roles that they play in the overall situation. Reducing the number of homeless people in a city, for example, involves the social services, voluntary housing groups, organizations helping reduce drug dependence, and police, as well as the many organizations who previously touched on the lives of people who risk going on to become homeless, such as parents and children’s care homes. </p>
<p>In all such cases, the strategy dynamics approach offers a single [<em>if extensive!</em>] picture of how the whole system fits together, enabling everyone involved to see their own role in that picture and to place their own aims in the context of what others are trying to do. </p>
<p><em>This briefing summarises discussion from chapter 2 of <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</strong><em>, p82 to 85</em></p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>Breifings 7: Problems with typical approach to business planning and forecasting</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/breifings-7-problems-with-typical-approach-to-business-planning-and-forecasting/</link>
		<comments>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/breifings-7-problems-with-typical-approach-to-business-planning-and-forecasting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 2010 09:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ryanair]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1465</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Strategic planning generally aims to get to an estimate of future sales and profits, so how these items are estimated is critical. Join Kim Warren, in his 7th Briefings blog, as he discusses the problems associated with the typical approach to business planning and forecasting using the low-fare airline Ryanair as an example.]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670"><strong>Why is the typical approach to business planning and forecasting flawed?</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">Strategic planning generally aims to get to an estimate of future sales and profits, so how these items are estimated is critical. Typically, you would start with a forecast for demand, and by assessing how competition could affect prices, get a value-forecast for the market. Setting targets for increased market share would then give a forecast for sales volume and revenue. There are however <em>problems</em> associated with <em>this typical</em> approach to business planning and forecasting&#8230;<br />
<span id="more-1465"></span>Applying this approach to low-fare airline Ryanair, for example, implies starting with a forecast for total air travel, targeting growth in market share to get the airline’s future passenger journeys, and then estimating the ticket prices it will be able to charge. Adding sales of ancillary items [<em>ground transport, food etc</em>] gives a forecast for total revenue [<em>see Figure 1</em>].</p>
<p><em><strong>Figure 1:</strong> Market-based forecasts for Ryanair revenues</em><br />
<img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb7_01.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p>In practice, this process is not so simple. First, on which <em>“market”</em> is the forecast based – the total European market, or only that served by low-fare carriers? Where are the boundaries of that market? Does it include, for example, flights from Italy to Turkey or Israel, and if Ryanair starts to operate across those boundaries does the whole analysis have to be recreated to reflect this wider scope? Ryanair is relatively simple because it basically offers a single, clear service, but Amazon.com, for example, long ago diversified from selling books by adding music, software, games and so on. This kind of analysis would therefore have to be repeated for each product market, and the results added together.</p>
<p>Now you have a forecast for sales and revenue, you would set targets to cut the fraction of revenue spent on raw materials and operating costs (<em>sales and marketing, distribution, product development, training, financial administration, etc.</em>). From the revenue forecast and cost ratios, you can then project operating profit. You may want to go on to estimate any investment needed and the cost of capital, to arrive at your <em>“economic profit”</em> – the profit you will make after the cost of funding.</p>
<p>A forecast for Ryanair’s costs might assume, for example, that the company will be able to reduce airport costs as a fraction of revenue—perhaps due to scheduling more flights per week through each airport—but will need to sustain the percentage of revenue spent on staff, to ensure continuing service levels. Similar calculations can be made for costs of routes, aircraft, marketing and other items.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Problems with this typical forecasting approach</strong></p>
<p>The logic of this process for forecasting revenues, costs and profit margins relies on some fundamental assumptions:</p>
<ul>
<li>that market growth is ‘out there’ and independent of what the company or its competitors do</li>
<li>that competitive forces dominate the prices companies can charge, and the profit margins they can achieve … the focus on reducing cost fractions is a way of trying to make just a little higher profitability on each dollar or Euro of sales than the next guy.</li>
</ul>
<p>Neither assumption stands up to scrutiny.</p>
<p>First, the airline market today is the size it is, and has grown at the rate it has, precisely because of the actions of Ryanair and others – opening new routes, offering lower fares than previously available, and so on. Other industries illustrate the same point – in IT, for example, the world is the way it is today because of what Microsoft, Dell, Google and a host of other companies have done, not because there was some independent force pushing demand for goods and services in certain directions and at certain speeds.</p>
<p>As regards prices, costs and margins, research now suggests, that the decisions of business executives have a larger influence on performance than do industry conditions. This implies it is possible to deliver strong performance [<em>both profit margins and growth</em>] in industries with tough competitive conditions—consider the airline industry where competitive forces are notoriously hostile, yet Ryanair, Southwest and a few other firms can be not just successful at a point in time, but sustain that performance over many years.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Resources will continue to drive revenues – and costs. </strong></p>
<p>This will not take long to explain because briefing 5 showed the strong causal link from resources to profits. Ryanair’s performance up to 2006 demonstrated clearly that customers drive revenue, and other resources [<em>staff, aircraft and so on</em>] drive costs – and putting these two pieces together explains profits. Not only was that true throughout the company’s history, it will also continue to be true into the future [<em>if the business continues the same activities</em>].</p>
<p>Just continue that reasoning into the future. Ryanair’s fare revenues in years to come will be driven by growth in the number of customers using the airline, and changes in their journey frequency and fares. We still need to understand competitive pressures, which will affect both the frequency with which customers will choose to travel with this airline and the fares they are willing to pay. But customers’ willingness to choose this company is strongly affected by its own success in offering the routes and service they want, as well as by market conditions.</p>
<p><em><strong>Figure 2:</strong> Customers will drive Ryanair future revenue</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb7_02.gif" alt="" width="435" height="252" /></p>
<p>Adopting the same principle for the airline’s costly resources leads to the plausible projection for operating costs shown in Figure 3. If the company is to serve the number of customers above, then it will have to add airports to reach those customers, offer more routes to win their travel choice, add planes to carry them, and hire additional staff to serve them.</p>
<p><strong><em>Figure 3:</em></strong> <em>Resources will continue to drive Ryanair costs</em></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smdb7_03.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p>As noted in a previous briefing, some other cost items must also be taken into account. In particular, it is costly not only to have resources but also to acquire them [<em>opening a new route for example</em>], and marketing may need to be spent to win customers. Nevertheless, starting with resources to estimate future revenues, costs and profits is a much more rigorous and practical approach than the broad-brush methods more commonly applied.</p>
<p>I hope you found this longer briefing to be worth the extra few moments of reading. In the next, we will show how exactly equivalent principles apply in non-business cases</p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
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<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p><strong>Not all heroes drive growth!</strong></p>
<p>Although the general media and business case studies love to investigate and report on examples of outstanding business growth, there are other heroes out there whose achievements are usually ignored. Would you volunteer, for example, to run Kodak’s camera-film business when the world is switching to digital devices, or jump at the chance to run Blockbuster video stores as the performance and availability of video downloading rises?</p>
<p>But someone has to do those jobs. Nor can you escape this question by saying that these businesses should diversify or switch into something else, such as Kodak print-shops for producing hard copies of digital photos – someone still has the job of selling photo-film for traditional cameras. It seems that, during 2000 to 2005 at least, Kodak was not doing as well on this challenge as its arch-rival Fuji, whose sales of photo film declined at a much slower rate.</p>
<p>Don’t under-estimate the importance of this capability. As explained in an earlier briefing, business value reflects the stream of future cash-flows, so the ability to hold the rate of decline, say, to 10% a year when it would otherwise be 25% has considerable business value. So let’s recognise those unknown heroes.</p>
<p><strong>Estimating future business performance is outlined in many sources; see for example:</strong></p>
<p><em>Martin J and Petty J, Value Based Management, (2000), Harvard Business School Press: Cambridge MA, Chapter 4 </em></p>
<p><em>Copeland T, Koller T and Murrin J, Valuation – Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, (2000), 4th Edition, Wiley: Chichester, Chapter 8</em></p>
<p>This briefing topic is covered in more depth in <em><strong>Strategic Management Dynamics</strong>,</em> pp 68-81</p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>Breifings 6: An important distinction: time-periods versus instants in time</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/breifings-6-an-important-distinction-time-periods-versus-instants-in-time/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Nov 2010 09:37:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1423</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the 6th Briefing Kim Warren discusses the important distinction between "time periods" and "instants in time". This series of fortnightly blogs is designed to give you an easy introduction to the Strategy Dynamics approach.]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670">There is an important distinction between <strong><em>time-periods</em></strong> and <strong><em>instants in time</em></strong>. A previous briefing emphasised that <strong><em>‘performance depends on resources’</em></strong>, but if performance is reported over a <strong><em>period</em></strong> and resources are reported at <strong><em>points in time</em></strong>, we risk comparing <strong><em>apples</em></strong> with <strong><em>oranges!</em></strong></td>
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<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">Most of what companies report about their performance concerns how well they have done during a certain period, the latest month or a financial year for example – how high their sales rate has been, how much profit they have generated and so on. Many companies, however, also track and report how much of certain things they have got at a point in time, such as the number of customers they have. Some even declare such numbers publicly at the end of each reporting period, such as subscribers for cable TV or cellphone companies.We need to be careful about this distinction&#8230;<span id="more-1423"></span></p>
<p>&#8230; between total activity over the period as a whole, and the opening and closing numbers of customers who give rise to those totals or averages. This should be a familiar distinction because it has always been necessary when looking at financial numbers – it is exactly the same distinction as exists between the cash flows that have come in during the year versus the cash amount at the end of the year.</p>
<p>This is important to get right when setting out how we hope our strategy will develop. A previous briefing emphasised that ‘performance depends on resources’, but if performance is reported over a period and resources are reported at points in time, we risk comparing apples with oranges.</p>
<p>The figure below shows a scenario in which revenue is driven by customers, and the number of customers changes during the year. The number of customers at the start of the year certainly does not ‘explain’ the year’s revenue on the right, nor the number at year-end. Not even the average of opening and closing numbers will work either. We have to break down the periods of time into shorter chunks – quarters in this figure – to get a more accurate relationship between customer numbers and sales revenue.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/006_01.gif" alt="tracking sales revenue as customer numbers shange" /> </p>
<p>Even magnifying the timescale by this amount may not be enough, depending on how rapidly things are changing, and how accurate our understanding of revenues needs to be. Just as cash levels may move up and down within a quarter—indeed, from day to day—so may numbers of customers. The more quickly things are changing, and the more precise the analysis needs to be, the shorter the time periods for which data must be assessed. The time periods must be short enough that the change in the resource level during each period is small, relative to the quantity of the resource at the start of the period.</p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
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<div style="border-left: navy 1px solid; background-color: #e9eef1; padding-left: 10px; border-top: navy 0px solid; border-right: navy 0px solid; border-: navy 1px solid;">
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a title="www.strategydynamics.com" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">on our website</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p>People are sometimes surprised at the importance I put on tracking the numbers of key resources – especially customers and staff – on a regular basis, and struggle to find the data. But we certainly expect our head of Finance to be on top of how much cash we have from period to period, so why would we not want to be equally in command of the resources that drive that cash.</p>
<p>If pushed, most organizations can identify numbers of staff at a point it time, but it may require them to go back to their raw payroll data to find how that number has changed over time. Customers pose much bigger problems. First, many companies are not in direct contact with the ultimate consumer of their product, perhaps because sales are made through stores or dealers, so have to rely on research to get an estimate. Even when we do deal directly with them it can be surprisingly hard to determine how many real customers we have. You’ have thought that a bank would know how many customers it has, because everyone has an account, but lots of those will be inactive. For other cases, a customer may remain on database long after they last gave the firm any sales, and now have no intention at all of buying again.</p>
<p>Early on in many projects, then, we have to identify exactly when a customer has actually ‘left’ and look back over time to understand how the number of real customers has changed.</p>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: x-small;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>Briefings 5: Resources drive performance</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/briefings-5-resources-drive-performance/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Nov 2010 10:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=1266</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 5th, in a series of fortnightly blogs designed to give you an easy introduction to the Strategy Dynamics approach, describes "why" analysis needs to go further; to find explanaitions for "why" revenue has followed the path that it has and "why" the individual cost items have developed as they have.]]></description>
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<td colspan="2" width="670">Analysis needs to find explanations for <strong><em>why</em></strong> revenue has followed the path that it has and <strong><em>why</em></strong> the individual cost items have developed as they have.</td>
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<td style="width: 500px; valign: top;">The previous briefing set out why we need a rigorous causal explanation for what drives profit or other performance outcomes. This analysis does not usually depart from normal practice, at least when it concerns profits, except for the addition of time charts for the revenue and cost items.<span id="more-1266"></span>Conventionally, revenue would be “explained” in terms of market size and the company’s market share. For the airline example developed in the early chapter:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Revenue    =     Size of Air Travel Market multiplied by the Firm’s Market Share</strong></p>
<p>This is not, however, a causal explanation so much as an arithmetical observation. It could equally be stated the other way round, i.e. market share = revenues divided by market size. The reality is that customers drive revenue and management activity and decisions aim to win and retain customers.</p>
<p>Similarly, costs are sometimes <em>&#8220;explained&#8221;</em> in terms of the company’s success in reducing the percentage of revenue expended on each item. So, for example:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>staff cost = Revenues multiplied by the percentage of revenue spent on staff</strong></p>
<p>Again, this can equally be expressed another way:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>staff-cost-percentage = staff cost divided by revenue multiplied by 100.</strong></p>
<p>While management frequently seek to contain such percentage cost ratios, the reality is that staff numbers drive the cost of staff, and management controls those costs by hiring and firing staff.</p>
<p>To achieve a true explanation for profit over time requires working back from the P&amp;L account along the causal chain until we encounter factors that management can actually influence.</p>
<p>For the airline example that I have been using in this briefing series and in the book, revenue results from the number of passenger journeys sold, multiplied by the average price paid by customers for those journeys. The number of journeys purchased depends, in turn, on the number of customers who use the airline, and the frequency with which they buy tickets. Among those customers will be a substantial number who are regular travellers, as well as less frequent users. There will also be just a few who use it so infrequently that they cannot be regarded as part of the regular customer base, but these are very few in number, and contribute little to the journeys and revenues of the airline.</p>
<p>These relationships are laid out for the low-fare airline Ryanair below (Figure 2.4 form the book). Like most airlines, the company regularly publishes data on “passengers flown”, but the number reported is strictly passenger journeys, not passengers. It is not known, therefore, whether the 34.8 million journeys bought in 2006 came from 17.4 million people travelling on average twice during the year, or from 3.48 million people travelling 10 times each—these two alternatives are not the same, and the difference is important.</p>
<ul>
<li>If the first explanation were true, then the company has achieved a very high penetration of all people who may want to travel, and might be advised to focus on persuading them to travel more often.</li>
<li>If the second explanation is correct, then it has an enthusiastic, if much smaller, band of customers, and would do better to focus on attracting more such people. For understandable reasons, Ryanair does not publish this detail, so the data on journey frequency and passenger numbers in Figure 2.4 are illustrative.</li>
</ul>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/005_01.gif" alt="Ryanair sales revenue" /></p>
<p>For now, note that the figure introduces a fundamental principle, that:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Customers <em>drive</em> Sales</strong></p>
<p>A similar principle applies in non-commercial situations, even though the focus may not be on financial income. In voluntary organizations, demand is driven by the number of beneficiaries the organization serves. In public services too, there is often some population driving demand for services, whether that be the number of children who need schooling, criminals committing crimes that require policing, or sick people needing healthcare.</p>
<p>Of course, Figure 2.4 is far from complete as an explanation for sales revenue alone. The number of journeys each customer makes each year depends on price, the range of destinations offered, service frequency and quality, and so on, and on how all of these compare with what competitors offer and what customers expect. Lastly, we cannot of course ignore general market conditions entirely. Consumers’ general propensity to travel, the impact of economic conditions on demand, and fundamental changes, such as population growth may also need to be taken into account. But revenue certainly depends on the number of customers.</p>
<p>Note by the way that where firms supply durable products, such as washing machines or cars, sales volume and revenue arise from winning the customer, rather from holding the customer into the future. This point will feature in a future briefing.</p>
<p>If we now look at the cost elements of the P&amp;L account and follow the same approach of rigorously asking ‘what causes what’, it turns out that another universal principle emerges:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Resources <em>drive</em> Costs</strong></p>
<p>For the airline, the major cost drivers are aircraft, the routes and airports operated, and the number of staff employed. Generally, the most common costly resources are capacity [in whatever form is relevant for your case], people, and the product-range.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/005_02.gif" alt="Ryanair sales revenue" width="393" height="269" /></p>
<p><strong>Until next time&#8230;</strong></td>
<td style="padding-top: 0px;" width="170" valign="top">
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<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><em>If you would like to receive the series from the beginning in your email inbox, please register on <a href="http://www.strategydynamics.com">the strategy dynamics site</a> and subscribe to Briefings in &#8220;My Account&#8221;</em></span></p>
<p><img style="margin: 0px;" title="Kim Warren" src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/Warren_003.jpg" alt="Kim Warren" width="148" height="218" /></p>
<p>People are sometimes surprised that they need to pay so much attention to things – customers – they don’t own or control. But there is a reliability about customers or clients that makes them an integral part of the system. Indeed, customers can be a more reliable – in the sense that they are likely to still be with us next week, next month or next year &#8211; than employees who are paid to be there. McDonald’s, for example, can expect its average employee to remain for just a few months, whereas many customers have been loyal users for many years.</p>
<p>Management often comes at the problem of understanding performance from the wrong start-point. One firm I worked with provided specialist equipment and chemicals for the intense cleaning of high-specification industrial components. The management could tell me all about growth prospects for their market sector, and changes they hoped for in their market share, thinking this was the way to estimate future sales. They also told me about their targets for reducing the fraction of sales revenue they would be spending on sales effort and administration, assuming this was the way to estimate future profits. They were encouraged in this approach by the targets set for them by the finance department at corporate HQ.</p>
<p>But the reality was that their sales came from the number of customer using their products, and they had given no thought to what those numbers were, nor the rate at which they might grow them. Nor had they worked out what impact their sales effort had on gains and losses of customers as the basis for working out how many sales people they needed – as opposed to what fraction of revenue should be spent on sales effort.</p>
<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://www.strategydynamics.com/ic/images/smd-stack-2.gif" alt="Strategic Management Dynamics book cover" /> Read more about the book <a title="Book outline on the web" href="http://www.strategydynamics.com/csd_outline/">on our website</a></div>
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		<title>How good leaders make bad decisions</title>
		<link>http://kimwarren.com/strategy/how-good-leaders-make-bad-decisions/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jan 2009 12:56:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim Warren</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kimwarren.com/?p=456</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8230; and right after the McKinsey survey, HBR has an article by Andrew Campbell, Jo Whitehead (Ashridge) and Sydney Finkelstein (Dartmouth) on neuroscience revelations about how leaders&#8217; judgment gets distorted. It seems we have systematic biases, then land on initial conclusions we are reluctant to change, and the article offers a &#8216;red flag&#8217; process for <a href='http://kimwarren.com/strategy/how-good-leaders-make-bad-decisions/'>[...]</a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230; and right after the McKinsey survey, HBR has an article by <a href="http://www.ashridge.org.uk/Website/Content.nsf/WebContent?ReadForm&amp;Zone=FAR&amp;SpecialTemplate=LongBioNote&amp;Name=Andrew+Campbell" target="_blank">Andrew Campbell</a>, <a href="http://www.ashridge.org.uk/Website/Content.nsf/WebContent?ReadForm&amp;Zone=FARBIO&amp;SpecialTemplate=LongBioNote&amp;Name=Jo%20Whitehead" target="_blank">Jo Whitehead</a> (<a href="http://www.ashridge.org.uk/" target="_blank">Ashridge</a>) and <a href="http://oracle-www.dartmouth.edu/dart/groucho/tuck_faculty_and_research.faculty_profile?p_id=ZZ21AL" target="_blank">Sydney Finkelstein</a> (Dartmouth) on neuroscience revelations about <a href="http://hbr.harvardbusiness.org/2009/02/why-good-leaders-make-bad-decisions/ar/1" target="_blank">how leaders&#8217; judgment gets distorted</a>. It seems we have systematic biases, then land on initial conclusions we are reluctant to change, and the article offers a &#8216;red flag&#8217; process for guarding against the dangers.</p>
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