I look forward to any new strategy book, so was thrilled to get “Good Strategy: Bad Strategy” by Prof Rumelt who McKinsey call ”strategy”s strategist”. Big disappointment!

“Bad strategy” apparently shows up as ”fluff”, failure to face challenges, mistaking goals for strategy, or choosing bad objectives – all common enough, maybe, but these are not any kind of strategy. There are plenty of actual strategy mistakes that repeat endlessly across industries and throughout time, but do not get a mention.

The “good strategy” principles offered are not wrong, but seem to follow a random walk around a variety of concepts – many of which, in the absence of clear instruction, themselves qualify as “fluff”. Plenty of anecdotes to show examples of good and bad, and reasonable-enough principles to follow, but no clue how to actually do what the examples show or how to enact the principles.

Prof Rumelt is no doubt a brilliant strategist, but no-one reading this is going to understand what to actually do to design and implement a strong strategy.

Great to see serious Strategy courses on offer, rather than superficial MBAs. The Vienna University Masters in Strategy, Innovation and Management Control is a recent case that will include a complete module on dynamics. Tilburg and Maastricht are other good examples. Even if you do not want to take such a course, the content shows what a professional competence in strategy should cover.
There are some others, but I do not see anything in N America.

The last three briefings have gone into the issue of interdependence between resources , and have brought us to the point where we now have the essential elements needed to describe an entire business and its performance…
What are they?
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Back in 1999 I got booed for saying the dot-com boom was mostly hot air, after which the NASDAQ dropped from 1000 to 200. The Economist now warns of a 2nd bubble,with private equity and big corporates falling over each other to throw cash at anything web-ish. Many of the new ventures will be great, but most will fail, due to poor understanding of whether business models are viable – which needs a sound system-model of the business.
As noted before, certified analysts are not required to understand anything about the link from strategy to performance, so we can be sure disasters will follow, as we see the NASDAQ drive up from 300 to 600 …
For a route to sound strategy and business models, see www.strategydynamics.com.

We have discussed how resources drive or hold back each others’ growth rates, and the idea that the level of a resource may affect its own development.

A particularly common framework arises when the saturation of a limited opportunity combines with word-of-mouth between already active customers and potential customers. This captures well how new products diffuse into a market, a process first set out by Professor Frank Bass1 hence the framework’s title.

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The flows in and out of a resource (the rates at which it grows or declines) depend on existing resourcesmore sales people should lead to customers being won more quickly, for example.

There are two special cases of this dependency that are both very common and important…
What are they?

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What makes strategy dynamics so powerful?
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A devastating implication arises from this interdependency between resources from the previous briefing. Here is a simple story…
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I hope we have now made a pretty solid case for the first two parts of the core strategy dynamics framework:

  • Performance at any time of any organization depends on the levels of resources in place at that time
  • Resources accumulate and deplete over time – mechanisms that therefore cause performance to change over time

We got to these principles by repeating relentlessly the question ‘What causes what?’ So the next logical question is… ‘What causes the rate at which resources are won and lost?

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After all the years I have been using strategy dynamics, I still find myself shocked at the power of this most basic of questions.
Time after time, executives get completely new insights from asking about just three numbers…

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